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OT: American Politics

FlyGuy said:
The lesson is listen to the boots on the ground in a swing state aka FlyGuy
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No. That's breaking the rule of #3. It's wrong. Don't do that. Only metric that was reliable were the poll aggregates. They nailed 'em. Doesn't mean they always will, but they had a nice election.
 
Votes by Election since 2008:

D: 69.5 --> 65.9 --> 65.8 --> 81.3 ---> ~76
R: 60.0 --> 60.9 --> 63.0 --> 74.2 ---> ~78
O: 1.9 ---> 2.3 ---> 7.8 ----> 2.9 ----> ~3
 
Preston said:
No. That's breaking the rule of #3. It's wrong. Don't do that. Only metric that was reliable were the poll aggregates. They nailed 'em. Doesn't mean they always will, but they had a nice election.
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The poll aggregates that said it was a 50/50 tossup?
 
FlyGuy said:
The poll aggregates that said it was a 50/50 tossup?
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OT: American Politics

The lesson is listen to the boots on the ground in a swing state aka FlyGuy No. That's breaking the rule of #3. It's wrong. Don't do that. Only metric that was reliable were the poll aggregates. They nailed 'em. Doesn't mean they always will, but they had a nice election.
www.forumice.com
 
zeke said:
The ticket splitting is sticking in my craw.

If dems are winning downballot in these key states the only reason they're losing top of the ticket is some kind of visceral reaction against Kamala.

(Reasons for which are obvious)
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And yet they are on the verge of losing the house in addition to the senate and the presidency.
 
worm said:
I was already scared of his second term in 2020 because he wouldn't have to even pretend to get elected after it. This is much worse now.

Let's just hope he golfs for 4 years
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He probably will but Trump himself isn't really the problem anymore. He is merely a means to an end and he has served his purpose. He's not really needed anymore. The oligarchs who hired operatives to write Project 2025 are actually the ones in charge this time and they have their meat puppet in the VP chair to take over when they get rid of Trump.
 
FlyGuy said:
It does not look that close to me.
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OT: American Politics

The lesson is listen to the boots on the ground in a swing state aka FlyGuy No. That's breaking the rule of #3. It's wrong. Don't do that. Only metric that was reliable were the poll aggregates. They nailed 'em. Doesn't mean they always will, but they had a nice election.
www.forumice.com
 
PA senate looks red.

GOP is likely gonna have 4 straight years of complete control of all houses with an extremely compliant scotus.

So whatever Trumpies wanted to happen will happen. No excuses.
 
Preston said:
If we've all learned some lessons I hope that they're:

1. No more crosstabs
2. No more crowd sizes
3. No more anecdotes
4. No more delusional dem fanboys like Bouzy

Look at the polls. You don't have to take them seriously, but it's all we've got to look at.
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Agreed on all of the above. I couldn't figure out the value of any of the polls though, to be honest. Every day, I'd see several different polls come out, some directly contradicting the others, and they all became worthless to me.
 
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