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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

MindzEye said:
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Imagine if there had been no vaccine and extrapolate those numbers. Would have to control for demographics (doable) and behaviour (less so)… but still.

Edit: dated, as of June, the number is estimated at 279K prevented deaths in the US. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/pu...izations-averted-rapid-us-vaccination-rollout

Edit 2: 1.1 million by December. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/pu...cination-program-one-year-how-many-deaths-and

Not sure if these are legit, I am unfamiliar with publishing ecosystem in this area.
 
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The omicron era will change that a bit as more vaxxed folks get covid. A big portion of the protection against severe disease was the ability for vaxxed folks to get infected at a fraction of the rate of the unvaxxed. The booster is nice for the first few months and our stats will always look amazing in the first 1-3 months post jab (on delta especially!).


Needless to say in South Africa 87% of Omicron's deaths were from the unvaxxed. 13% fully vaxxed. Around 35% of the country is vaxxed and I'd imagine the older vulnerable ages have the higher vax rates like in most countries.

So that's a nice sign that the vaccines still work real well to limit severity.


Trevor Bedford, super nerd, says that once everyone has some sort of immunity through infection and/or vaccine we'll be in an endemic state. It's likely we get there next year. Now endemic state doesn't mean everything is rosy. It just means there will be more seasonality and more predictability. But there can still be an incredible amount of suffering and death with some restrictions needed at times if things get out of hand... But it'll be more like a "new normal" kinda deal. And we'll be able to handle a lot more cases than we did pre immunity. Hell, I've seen a nerd or two imply that we're already pretty much there. Omicron will get us there in any event.
 
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Holding up as milder in Brits so far, but there could be a lot of reasons. For example, more vaxxed people are getting infected than ever so they are a higher proportion of total cases. And the vaxxed will generally get it milder whether it has to do with omicron or not.

 
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Yeah.. This is potentially a win for the young and healthy as it may expedite the progression of the pandemic a bit.. But I'm not sure how the elderly and immunocompromised can avoid this thing forever. I do think for them, treatments coming online are always gonna be crucial. The Pfizer pills are really complex to manufacture and supply is gonna be a real problem in the next 1-2 years. Hopefully they can ramp up in a big way.
 
so I think I am pissed at NS for the first time in a while. may be seeing the impact of a PC Premier vs. a Liberal.

as of next week, I will be unable to get a PCR test. no matter what.

rapid tests that were being given out for free and now being hoarded.

essentially we are being told we have a testing capacity crisis. to me, that sounds more like a 'resources' crisis, which is within the power of government, but I digress.

anyhow, shifting the strategy to PCRs for the most vulnerable and prioritizing rapid tests for symptomatic folks and close contacts not eligible for PCRs. basically throwing in the towel on testing already and just hoping to protect the hospitals and the vulnerable.

on the one hand I kinda get it. on the other hand there is a part of me that is skeptical that this is anything more than a cost saving exercise from accountant Tim
 
Wayward DP said:
so I think I am pissed at NS for the first time in a while. may be seeing the impact of a PC Premier vs. a Liberal.

as of next week, I will be unable to get a PCR test. no matter what.

rapid tests that were being given out for free and now being hoarded.

essentially we are being told we have a testing capacity crisis. to me, that sounds more like a 'resources' crisis, which is within the power of government, but I digress.

anyhow, shifting the strategy to PCRs for the most vulnerable and prioritizing rapid tests for symptomatic folks and close contacts not eligible for PCRs. basically throwing in the towel on testing already and just hoping to protect the hospitals and the vulnerable.

on the one hand I kinda get it. on the other hand there is a part of me that is skeptical that this is anything more than a cost saving exercise from accountant Tim
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Are you and Mrs. DP feeling better?
 


Saw this retweeted from someone I follow yesterday and man, so true. You're right, PCRs should not be a thing longer term. Expensive and pointless due to the timing quite frankly. Invest in rapid tests, improve their accuracy, and make them widely available and the standard for all to use. I mean if someone is hospitalized with a sickness it would be pretty useful to know whether it's the flu or covid and finding out in 10-15 minutes would probably save some lives! Treatments vary from illness to illness!
 
Breakdown of new SA study today. A thread:



Quite frankly I know a lot of people are trying really hard to believe that this variant is a lot milder.. And that would be good... But I think this is better news and gives us an "out." If prior immunity is this effective at keeping people out of hospitals then that is fantastic. Over time, this should theoretically get milder and milder with each passing exposure. Hopefully.
 
Preston said:


Saw this retweeted from someone I follow yesterday and man, so true. You're right, PCRs should not be a thing longer term. Expensive and pointless due to the timing quite frankly. Invest in rapid tests, improve their accuracy, and make them widely available and the standard for all to use. I mean if someone is hospitalized with a sickness it would be pretty useful to know whether it's the flu or covid and finding out in 10-15 minutes would probably save some lives! Treatments vary from illness to illness!
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exactly. This isn’t strep throat. Save the Pcr tests for elderly folks and hospitals.

For 99pct of cases all you can do is wait it out, anyways.
 
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