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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

can't believe you mistook poison oak for poison ivy



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Happy New Year to the folks at home!

We've longed discussed best case scenarios that this wonderful virus becomes a cold after many exposures to the spike. That is not the consensus, however. No one actually knows jack shit and all we can do is base things on our priors and with coronaviruses we don't have much of that! The following forecast is the more common one I've seen, although again, many nerds would disagree! Warning: NSFMH (not safe for mental health).







Presto's take: I'd be happy if we can defang covid to around half the virulence of the flu per case. It would still be challenge but far more doable than assuming flu or flu+ severity considering the increased infectiousness! This is a covid centrist take. Somewhere in between the best and worst case scenarios!

Have a wonderful day! It's shabu shabu night at the Preston Mizzi household!
 
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Preston said:
Happy New Year to the folks at home!

We've longed discussed best case scenarios that this wonderful virus becomes a cold after many exposures to the spike. That is not the consensus, however. No one actually knows jack shit and all we can do is base things on our priors and with coronaviruses we don't have much of that! The following forecast is the more common one I've seen, although again, many nerds would disagree! Warning: NSFMH (not safe for mental health).







Presto's take: I'd be happy if we can defang covid to around half the virulence of the flu per case. It would still be challenge but far more doable than assuming flu or flu+ severity considering the increased infectiousness! This is a covid centrist take. Somewhere in between the best and worst case scenarios!

Have a wonderful day! It's shabu shabu night at the Preston Mizzi household!
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I read a little piece the other day that said thanks to the measures we’ve taken to fight covid, we may have actually eradicated the flu. Did you see anything like that?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I read a little piece the other day that said thanks to the measures we’ve taken to fight covid, we may have actually eradicated the flu. Did you see anything like that?
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Flu is still alive and well! And thriving more than it has since the pandemic began, albeit at low levels still.

I think you may have read that one particular strain may have gone extinct. It hasn't been detected in awhile as of I think November or December.
 
Hoping we get our supply of omicron boosters for all by June/July at the latest (Pfizer expects to start delivering the product by March). Gives us 5-6 months on 3 doses, which protection will largely fade away by month 4, but that's fine.

I'm sure no other variant will take over by then. This take will age extremely well of course.
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
I read a little piece the other day that said thanks to the measures we’ve taken to fight covid, we may have actually eradicated the flu. Did you see anything like that?
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One strain of the four, yes. It hasn't been seen anywhere on the planet in almost 2 years now.
 
One thing to be aware of with mr shaman: he has stepped a bit outside of his bounds on covid. He is a climatologist and his epidemiological modeling historically was on seasonality / weather impacts on infectious disease, not disease progression itself.

so he isn’t out of left field on this stuff, is a reputable guy and covid modeling has consumed him for the past few years, but he is not a virologist or somebody who has a background in studying infectious disease at large - only a very narrow piece of that puzzle n
 
Yeah it's just something I saw that kinda dumbed it down for the laymen. It's not a terribly unique take tho within the experts; more common than not. The only major disagreements are about how severe it'll be longterm. And to be fair anything other than this long-term outcome requires a lot of heavy lifting from our immune systems! Not impossible but without any known coronavirus priors the safe bet is the one that says this thing is way too virulent and transmissive to expect this to be like seasonal common colds (which have R0s that are 1.5-2 at most and only really circulate seasonally). So in this case I don't think his credentials are important; it's not a very bold or unusual take from actual experts and goes with the odds, not against them!

I prefer the bold bet tho. And children getting it relatively mild is a good sign. Tldr: no one knows. Embrace the uncertainty!
 
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