• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

How can you not be in the win now mode? If thats the case then just trade Dickey, Buerhle and Bautista and start over; what a huge let down this team has become
 
After all the trades from last year. The loss of some of our best prospects and huge financial commitment going forward. To just do ziltch this off season and not continue to be aggressive is mind boggling. Why even bother if your not going to go all the way with this Window we have.
 
The biggest problem is the massive over-valuing of pitchers this off-season. You have above average players seeking 17-20 million dollars a year despite spotty track records and you have teams asking for your 2 best prospects and then some for guys who have shown they are #4 pitchers, maybe #3 at best. If AA were to sign a Jimenez for the 17+ million he's demanding or trade Stroman and Sanchez plus whatever else Theo wants for Shark, he should be fired ASAP. As is and health permitting, I see the Jays as being an 80-85 win team which is about what the Yanks, Rays and O's are at this time and I see a decent regression for the Sox. I think if they can maintain health and are within reach, they can just as easily acquire whatever they need mid-season for a lesser cost.
 
If I were the Jays I would move all in on Tanaka; has the tools to be dominant and hes very young. I do agree with not overpaying Garza and Jimenez
 
the dodgers have made it very clear that they're going to pay whatever the cost is on him. and nobody -- not even the yankees -- can compete with that.

the dodgers local tv deal pays THEM (in addition to revenue sharing) about $240mn per year. just their tv deal. they can spend whatever they want.

i'd love to get tanaka, andi 'm sure AA would as well, but getting him is akin to climbing everest at this point.

the only guy who is maybe worth it is jimenez. but that's a guy with some worrying signs -- the awful 2012, the declining velocity, and 2013 peripherals that may scream fluke.
 
Since looking at Ubaldo's career more in depth, I'm inclined to believe 2012 is an outlier. Every conceivable metric for some reason got worse for him that year. I think he's far closer to what he did in 2013 then what he did in 2012 minus the elevated K/9. I think on a 4 year deal at 13-14 million per season, it wouldn't be hard to see him post numbers right around 8.50 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 45% GB%, 0.65 HR/9, 3.50 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 3.5-4.5 WAR. If you get that kind of production from him in at least 3 of those 4 years, he'll be worth the salary and commitment. The loss in velocity is a red flag but he became more of a pitcher last year then he was in Colorado when he could dial it up at 97 mph.
 
Re: OT The Toronto Blue Jays

Frankly, I think if we're not competing come the trade deadline we should definitely be looking at moving Dickey, MB, Lind, Melky, Happ, Janssen and Rasmus. I would look for offers at Bautista, Reyes and EE as well.

I am not saying this because I'm angry - I'm saying this because I don't think we will compete without the additional starting pitching. JA Happ isn't a mainstay on winning team. Also, we all know that Morrow will go down.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
I like Jiminez...he'd be the guy i go for

and i'd overpay Santana if i had to.

No on Garza.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't touch Santana, especially at the 5 year/100 million he's demanding. Though he's gotten better at inducing groundballs, he's still very HR prone and isn't a big strikeout guy. He's always performed right around what his peripherals suggest meaning when he's good, he's really good but when he's bad, he's really bad. He is an innings eater, I'll give him that but he's got more risk then Jimenez IMO.
 
Habs_Lifer said:
The biggest problem is the massive over-valuing of pitchers this off-season. You have above average players seeking 17-20 million dollars a year despite spotty track records and you have teams asking for your 2 best prospects and then some for guys who have shown they are #4 pitchers, maybe #3 at best. If AA were to sign a Jimenez for the 17+ million he's demanding or trade Stroman and Sanchez plus whatever else Theo wants for Shark, he should be fired ASAP. As is and health permitting, I see the Jays as being an 80-85 win team which is about what the Yanks, Rays and O's are at this time and I see a decent regression for the Sox. I think if they can maintain health and are within reach, they can just as easily acquire whatever they need mid-season for a lesser cost.
Click to expand...

Jiminez at 15-17 million is simply the cost of doing business in the major leagues, and if we're not ready to pay it, the problem is with us, not with them. We have a choice: Pay only money for that type of player that we need in our rotation, or further gut our farm system to go get that type of player and hope to develop those cheap options from within. The one where we only give up money is clearly, clearly the better of the two scenarios...especially given the fact that Jiminez wouldn't require a compensatory 1st round pick from us,

We're in a position that in the poker world is called "pot committed". We've already sunk so much of the franchises current competitive equity into this group of players that doing anything but pushing all of our chips into the centre of the table is a massive, massive mistake.
 
Re: OT The Toronto Blue Jays

CaptainBolduke said:
Frankly, I think if we're not competing come the trade deadline we should definitely be looking at moving Dickey, MB, Lind, Melky, Happ, Janssen and Rasmus. I would look for offers at Bautista, Reyes and EE as well.

I am not saying this because I'm angry - I'm saying this because I don't think we will compete without the additional starting pitching. JA Happ isn't a mainstay on winning team. Also, we all know that Morrow will go down.
Click to expand...

I completely agree. Though I view this team as a slightly above or slightly below .500 team as is, without an upgrade in the rotation the risk still remains that we could see what happened last year happen again. If we're treading water come late June, early July and we're 10-15+ out of it, I say deal everyone and fire Gibbons. I'd personally give AA another shot at actually rebuilding but I'd make sure no quick fixes are made the second go around. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt because he has shown already a great ability to rebuild a farm system.
 
mbow30 said:
the dodgers have made it very clear that they're going to pay whatever the cost is on him. and nobody -- not even the yankees -- can compete with that.

the dodgers local tv deal pays THEM (in addition to revenue sharing) about $240mn per year. just their tv deal. they can spend whatever they want.

i'd love to get tanaka, andi 'm sure AA would as well, but getting him is akin to climbing everest at this point.

the only guy who is maybe worth it is jimenez. but that's a guy with some worrying signs -- the awful 2012, the declining velocity, and 2013 peripherals that may scream fluke.
Click to expand...

Which peripherals exactly? His Babip was actually 12 points higher than his career average last season, with a career average BB rate. His K rate was up about 2-3% over a normal season for him but that's hardly cause for concern. His LD% dropped back in line with his career norms (19-20%).

I've spent quite a bit of time staring at his numbers and the only conclusion they suggest is that 2012 was a monstrous outlier for him. 2013 was back in line with his career norms.

The guy is worth every penny of a ~15 million dollar a year contract.
 
MindzEye said:
Which peripherals exactly? His Babip was actually 12 points higher than his career average last season, with a career average BB rate. His K rate was up about 2-3% over a normal season for him but that's hardly cause for concern. His LD% dropped back in line with his career norms (19-20%).

I've spent quite a bit of time staring at his numbers and the only conclusion they suggest is that 2012 was a monstrous outlier for him. 2013 was back in line with his career norms.

The guy is worth every penny of a ~15 million dollar a year contract.
Click to expand...

i thought his babip was lower, but a k/9 that is a full k higher than his previous career high despite coming over to the AL from the NL and the velocity drop are, to me, red flags.
 
If they do nothing...

Our top 3 consists of 2 senior citizens and a head case injury prone super talent.

our 4 is a shitty NL 5

and our 5 is a relatively unproven kid who's had recent surjury.

It's potentially fugly
 
MindzEye said:
Jiminez at 15-17 million is simply the cost of doing business in the major leagues, and if we're not ready to pay it, the problem is with us, not with them. We have a choice: Pay only money for that type of player that we need in our rotation, or further gut our farm system to go get that type of player and hope to develop those cheap options from within. The one where we only give up money is clearly, clearly the better of the two scenarios...especially given the fact that Jiminez wouldn't require a compensatory 1st round pick from us,

We're in a position that in the poker world is called "pot committed". We've already sunk so much of the franchises current competitive equity into this group of players that doing anything but pushing all of our chips into the centre of the table is a massive, massive mistake.
Click to expand...

The problem here is that you should never put yourself in a "pot committed" situation when you are bluffing. Especially when you know you're likely to be called.
 
MindzEye said:
Which peripherals exactly? His Babip was actually 12 points higher than his career average last season, with a career average BB rate. His K rate was up about 2-3% over a normal season for him but that's hardly cause for concern. His LD% dropped back in line with his career norms (19-20%).

I've spent quite a bit of time staring at his numbers and the only conclusion they suggest is that 2012 was a monstrous outlier for him. 2013 was back in line with his career norms.

The guy is worth every penny of a ~15 million dollar a year contract.
Click to expand...

15 million is the absolute max he's worth per season on a 4 year deal. That's his ceiling. If you pay anymore you're banking on him getting his velocity back up to 95+ which would be dumb.
 
mbow30 said:
i thought his babip was lower, but a k/9 that is a full k higher than his previous career high despite coming over to the AL from the NL and the velocity drop are, to me, red flags.
Click to expand...

The fact that he thrived in about the best American League proxy you could ask for in the NL, with a K rate 2-4% lower than what he did last year has to alleviate that concern imo. The drop in velocity can be a concern, but frankly, when you look at how his fastball velocity dropped, but it's value as a pitch improved...and it's still an above average 91.7mph, I'm not that concerned about it.
 
Gibbons better run one hell of a training camp this year and not the fake one of last year because this team needs to get off toa great start. Or he and AA will be gone by the end of May.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top