OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

[Montana]

The fact that he thrived in about the best American League proxy you could ask for in the NL, with a K rate 2-4% lower than what he did last year has to alleviate that concern imo. The drop in velocity can be a concern, but frankly, when you look at how his fastball velocity dropped, but it's value as a pitch improved...and it's still an above average 91.7mph, I'm not that concerned about it.

He's a classic case of a thrower learning how to become a pitcher.

 

[MindzEye]

15 million is the absolute max he's worth per season on a 4 year deal. That's his ceiling. If you pay anymore you're banking on him getting his velocity back up to 95+ which would be dumb.

None of this is accurate. 2012 was his only season where he had lower than a 3.2 WAR...the old back of the napkin formula of 5 million = 1 War (which as Montana pointed out recently, is a 5+ year old axiom and with inflation alone is more expensive now) would have him worth at minimum 16 million a season.

I think what you're missing is that he made significant adjustments last season to regain his form. He has a slightly plus fastball now, down from the elite pounder it used to be, but he's adjusted by throwing his slider a lot more, and it's ****ing nasty. He threw his slider 23% of the time last season and it's clearly his best pitch. He's also gotten much better at using his change to disguise his fastball (he used to have a noticeable difference in arm action on the changeup, but with the decline in FB velocity, they've synced up much more closely)

Long story short, he's gone from a thrower with an elite thrower with a nasty fastball/slider combo to more of a pitcher with an average fastball (he throws 4 of them now), with a nasty slider, plus changeup, and average curve.

So yeah, he's not the 6 War elite arm he was a few years ago...but that guy would be getting 30 million a year in free agency. He's now just a really good #2-3 starter...which will cost you 15-17 million in today's market. It's the cost of doing business...

 

[MindzEye]

He's a classic case of a thrower learning how to become a pitcher.

Yep, and the number bare that out. It's funny that his contact rates last year, as more of a throw are just about identical to what they were when he was throwing 96mph gas constantly.

 

[zeke]

First off, AA saying this is just bargaining, and he's still interested in getting a pitcher if the price is reasonable. Him saying this publicly is nothing more than bargaining at this point.

Secondly, I am quite happy with a quiet offseason this year - the last thing I wanted to see was an overreaction to last year's disaster year. This team is still a good one, with lots of talent, and now has the bonus of having added quality young SP depth with the return of Hutch and Drabek from injury and the move of Stroman and Nolin up to AAA. I already think dumping JPA, a .720ish catcher his first two years before his one disaster year last year, was hasty.....and dumping JJ may have been hasty as well, though with his salary at least its more understandable. This current lineup is every bit as good as the one that entered last year projected as a contender. I really want to see what they can do with all the overwrought hype and expectations removed.

Thirdly, that projected starting rotation actually should be decent if they all come in around reasonable projections for them, and it has good depth behind it with Stroman, Nolin, Drabek as kids in AAA and potential vet help in Redmond, Rogers, and Romero, too.

 

[axlsalinger]

I'm not comfortable putting Happ into the rotation automatically, but I actually am comfortable slotting Hutchison in there. Especially if you back him up with Drabek as option B. He's a risk, but I think he's going to have a big year. As for Morrow, he is always an injury risk, which is why you need other options, but until he is actually hurt, he's a no-brainer, as are Dickey and Buehrle. You could argue that Esmil Rogers deserves the spot ahead of Happ.

While I support the signing of Jimenez (or Tanaka), all this hand-wringing is a little silly. There are lots of options here. (Don't forget that Redmond was considered a fairly high-ceiling prospect at one point as well). Both AA and Gibby are really high on Stroman. Of course, we don't have to pencil anybody in right now. Let them battle it out during spring training. People also need to remember that few starters have signed anywhere. They are all waiting for Tanaka and the first FA to sign. The teams are all waiting for the prices to drop. There's still plenty of time.

 

[CaptainBolduke]

No one is worried about the lineup.

The main reason I think it's important to sign a starter is because Morrow will go down for a long period at some point in the season. That would bump JA Happ (currently) to the number 3 spot.

JA Happ isn't a #3 starter on a championship team.

 

[MapleLeafBlueJayBoy]

Happ would be the perfect 7th person in the bullpen acting as the swingman.

 

[leafman101]

I don't think its a bad idea to hold off on overpaying for a pitcher. The guys we have in the rotation do have the potential to be better than last season. And there is no one particularly interesting on the free agent market. So there isn't really a rush.

It makes sense to do it if you are a pitcher away from winning. If the team ends up being more than a pitcher away from winning though you can't trade guys like Sanchez or Stroman or give one of the biggest contracts on the team to a number 2 or 3 pitcher.

But if they are having a good season they can always make a move for a pitcher then. There will probably be some better arms available too.

 

[Montana]

there is no one particularly interesting on the free agent market.

False.

 

[MapleLeafBlueJayBoy]

I don't think its a bad idea to hold off on overpaying for a pitcher. The guys we have in the rotation do have the potential to be better than last season. And there is no one particularly interesting on the free agent market. So there isn't really a rush.

 

[CaptainBolduke]

The safety net for the Jays as an organization is that blowing up the team will bring back tons in terms of young talent and prospects. That's why it's actually OK to sign a starter or two now.

If it doesn't end up working during Dickey's very small window, you can always blow it up.

It makes complete sense to "overpay" right now. EE, Bautista and Reyes will all still be very tradable if it doesn't workout.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

it scares me that i agree with the Captain, they need to go for it in the Dickey window

 

[CaptainBolduke]

I can be serious sometimes on here.....

 

[mbow30]

False.

there is some depth but the only guys who look like they might be worth the money are tanaka and jimenez... and they both have pretty huge question marks.

say what you want about AA's approach but at the same time ,it isn't like anybody else is moving on these guys.

it isn't like last summer where a couple of cy young winners were out there.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Nobody is moving on Ubaldo, Garza, and Ervin because Tanaka is holding up the market

 

[mbow30]

nobody is moving on them because they are asking for idiotic amounts of money.

their agents aren't comign down on price because of tanaka. if teams didn't have reservations about these guys they'd be signed.

 

[zeke]

honestly, pitchers and catchers report in 2-3 weeks.

these agents are obviously holding out for more than teams want to pay.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

if i was the agent for Ubaldo, Garza, and Ervin i dont let my client sign until Tanaka does, unless the price was absurd

 

[Leafin']

Tanaka has until the end of the week to sign, no?

If so hopefully the Jays can get one of the arms available.

 

[Montana]

there is some depth but the only guys who look like they might be worth the money are tanaka and jimenez

Jiminez and Tanaka are why it's patently false to proclaim there is no one 'interesting' on the market......both of those guys are a hell of a lot more than just 'interesting'.