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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MindzEye said:
None of this is accurate. 2012 was his only season where he had lower than a 3.2 WAR...the old back of the napkin formula of 5 million = 1 War (which as Montana pointed out recently, is a 5+ year old axiom and with inflation alone is more expensive now) would have him worth at minimum 16 million a season.

I think what you're missing is that he made significant adjustments last season to regain his form. He has a slightly plus fastball now, down from the elite pounder it used to be, but he's adjusted by throwing his slider a lot more, and it's ****ing nasty. He threw his slider 23% of the time last season and it's clearly his best pitch. He's also gotten much better at using his change to disguise his fastball (he used to have a noticeable difference in arm action on the changeup, but with the decline in FB velocity, they've synced up much more closely)

Long story short, he's gone from a thrower with an elite thrower with a nasty fastball/slider combo to more of a pitcher with an average fastball (he throws 4 of them now), with a nasty slider, plus changeup, and average curve.

So yeah, he's not the 6 War elite arm he was a few years ago...but that guy would be getting 30 million a year in free agency. He's now just a really good #2-3 starter...which will cost you 15-17 million in today's market. It's the cost of doing business...
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It's actually fairly accurate. I've already made reference to Jimenez transitioning from thrower to actual pitcher. FanGraphs had him pegged as being worth roughly 16 million last year and IMHO it would be foolish to bank on him to be better then that. My honest opinion is that over the course of a 4 or even 5 year deal, he's going to give you an average of 190-200 IP, 3.50 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and be worth about 3 WAR a season(barring injury). I don't see him improving but I see him remaining consistent for at least 3 out of 4 years going forward. Pretty much, what he did in 2011 and 2013 are what I see him doing going forward. I think he'll be worth 15 million a season and that's what he should be paid. Right now he's asking for at least 17 million while some have reported he's looking for 20 million like Santana.

Look, I want Jimenez, the guy is easily the best arm on the market even over Tanaka since Ubaldo has actually thrived in the MLB as well as being very successful at Coors Field. I don't get why he's being under-valued by a lot of fans but I don't see him being worth over 15 million year.
 
3 WAR is worth more than $15 million per season now (and has for a while)......the $ value of each WAR just continues to inflate every year.
 
who cares if its 15 or 17 for Ubaldo when you are in the situation the Jays are? Contenders sign the guy, the Minnesota Twins worry about value
 
I'm mostly going off FanGraphs value system. They had him at 3.3 WAR and worth 16 million last year and at 3.2 WAR in 2011 and worth 14.8 million. I see him as being able to maintain that kind of production hence why I see him worth 15 million.
 
Habs_Lifer said:
I'm mostly going off FanGraphs value system. They had him at 3.3 WAR and worth 16 million last year and at 3.2 WAR in 2011 and worth 14.8 million. I see him as being able to maintain that kind of production hence why I see him worth 15 million.
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If he was worth 16 million last year, and ~15 million the year prior.....and you expect his numbers to remain similar....then he's clearly worth more than $15 million per year over the next four years, just based on inflation alone.
 
Montana said:
3 WAR is worth more than $15 million per season now (and has for a while)......the $ value of each WAR just continues to inflate every year.
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I didn't realize they used inflation in WAR calculations, I figured it was a set metric that saw a rise and fall in value based on the players variables(ie. ERA, FIP, K/9, etc.). ****, in that case, give the guy 4 years @ 17 million and call it an off-season and lets get Spring Training started.
 
Again. Who cares if you pay a player 17 million, if he's "only" worth 15.

The Jays need at least one more established starter. Many people say they need 2.
 
Habs_Lifer said:
I didn't realize they used inflation in WAR calculations, I figured it was a set metric that saw a rise and fall in value based on the players variables(ie. ERA, FIP, K/9, etc.). ****, in that case, give the guy 4 years @ 17 million and call it an off-season and lets get Spring Training started.
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WAR is a set metric.....it's monetary value, is not.
 
Montana said:
WAR is a set metric.....it's monetary value, is not.
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The 1 War = 5 million dollars rule of thumb is over 5 years old. It stands to reason that it has to rise at the same rate as the average salary increase in MLB. In the past 5 years, MLB salaries have gone up by ~10% over the last 5 years (and quite a bit more over the last 7-8 years, which if I had to date this axiom, is where I put it). It stands to reason that 1 WAR would be closer to 6 million by now.
 
Yeah, it's been creeping up by about a solid 5% every year.....so $6-$6.4 is probably about where it stands now.


If Ubaldo is a 3 WAR guy, he'd be worth roughly $18 this coming season......and a ~$22 million value player in year four.
 
Montana said:
Yeah, it's been creeping up by about a solid 5% every year.....so $6-$6.4 is probably about where it stands now.


If Ubaldo is a 3 WAR guy, he'd be worth roughly $18 this coming season......and a ~$22 million value player in year four.
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It's unlikely that he'll maintain 3 WAR for the length of the deal. But still a 4x15 is likely reasonable. Probably an overpayment, but the Jays are at the point where it's worth spending a bit more for the wins, if it's enough to get them over the hump and into a playoff spot.
 
If over the next four years, he continues to be anything close to what he's been recently.....$15m per is a downright steal.
 
I'm pretty sure teams would have already offered 4x15. I think these guys are all asking for 5x20 minimum right now. AA said on the radio last week he could complete both a trade, or a free agent signing immediately, but the prices are just way too high right now.
 
axlsalinger said:
I'm pretty sure teams would have already offered 4x15. I think these guys are all asking for 5x20 minimum right now. AA said on the radio last week he could complete both a trade, or a free agent signing immediately, but the prices are just way too high right now.
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Yeah, I imagine this is the case. But once the first few guys sign, then we might see a domino effect. The question is about supply and demand - once Tanaka falls, does everyone start upping their offers to grab whoever is left, or do offers fall off the table as teams sign guys.
 
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