OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Nah, it's not.
Also nah
Well, I think the point here with Fisher is that you can pick up one of these guys for nothing every spring. See: Hernandez, Teoscar. Where we kind of get choked is that we keep putting value to them in trade mid season. We want low minors lottery tickets with some upside. Not failed prospects who hit the wall in their mid 20's.
Time to 1st base is technically an analytic. Fisher is not an analytic darling in the least, that's not the reason to be interested in him. "Tools" are though. Shatkins may be interested in analytics, but none of the fake rebuild gang they've brought in (Drury, McKinney, Grichuk, Hernandez, Fisher) were under valued analytics darlings. They just weren't.
Deckie007
Well-known member
Derek Fisher is worth exploring. He hits the ball extremely hard (top 20 in exit velo) and has plus power and speed. He's cut his K rate from nearly 50% to sub 30% and doubled his walk rate to a respectable rate. He probably doesn't put it together with a mediocre hit tool and has weird reverse platoon splits. Still, we're not exactly running out Mike Trout in the OF spots, so better to give him a run of play and see what happens, no?
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axlsalinger
Well-known member
I'm not entirely sure of the argument you're making here. Are you suggesting that all baseball players who reach age 25 without becoming major league regulars should be taken out behind the barn and shot? No late bloomers ever make it? Not even in recent Toronto history?
Also unclear about your Aaron Sanchez "nah". Are you saying he's done and you're fine with them trading him because he's been total shit since 2016? Or that he's going to win the next 5 AL Cy Young awards because you hate the Jays front office?
Lots of talent evaluators liked Derek Fisher just fine. He definitely stumbled in 2018, but I still think he's an interesting "prospect" with potential upside. Some guys just take longer to figure things out.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
He's also a two-pitch pitcher, it might work out quite well in the pen but yeah, he got more chances to start than most guys get and was awful.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
What I'm saying is to take the mystery box, it might be a boat. Don't take what we know to not be a boat.
I'm saying he's hot garbage. He's been hot garbage most of his career aside from one crazy season.
Liked. Past tense.
Which is fine, grab all of those guys that you want when they're on the edge of getting DFA'd in the spring. Always go for the mystery box when you're trading assets away though, because the mystery box might be a boat.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
All prospects are a mystery box. We know a lot more about 24-year-olds than we do about 19-year-olds, good and bad. But looking at post-hype sleepers sometimes uncovers a slowly inflating "boat". They were good enough at one point to create that hype.
I get the idea of going for young upside, I'm all for it. But there has to be a good argument for the player, teams don't want to move high-upside guys at any level, especially now. If it's just an okay guy, I might prefer the post-hype sleeper. It depends on each individual player.
Remember, I didn't like this trade at the deadline. But I am intrigued enough with Fisher to give him a look and really, what did we give up for him? Biagini, an average reliever who was then sent to the minors, a chronically injured guy we all agree has been shit for 3 years, and a low-end prospect who's had a good year. If Fisher can become an MLB regular, that's a cheap price to pay.
I get the idea of going for young upside, I'm all for it. But there has to be a good argument for the player, teams don't want to move high-upside guys at any level, especially now. If it's just an okay guy, I might prefer the post-hype sleeper. It depends on each individual player.
Remember, I didn't like this trade at the deadline. But I am intrigued enough with Fisher to give him a look and really, what did we give up for him? Biagini, an average reliever who was then sent to the minors, a chronically injured guy we all agree has been shit for 3 years, and a low-end prospect who's had a good year. If Fisher can become an MLB regular, that's a cheap price to pay.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
The problem with adding is you need to try them out and it means not persuing actual proven talent in FA
manny
Well-known member
I'm afraid/certain that they'll go into next year with 10-12 "depth" type arms between MLB and AAA and try to cobble together a rotation out of those guys exclusively. Borucki, Zeuch, Kay, Thornton, Gaviglio, Pannone, Hatch, Waguespack, Reid-Foley and a couple of similar controllable AAAA guys. There are probably 2-3 guys that can actually start on that list, but in cycling through all of them to find out who that is, it pretty much guarantees another lost year. I guess they have Shoemaker under contract as well, but he has thrown 130 innings total since 2016.
A better play would be to sign 2 FA actual starters to multi-year deals and fill in the last few spots internally. It would actually give them a better chance of separating the wheat from the chaff.
Another good move would be moving Shapiro completely out of baseball ops and giving Atkins' job to someone like Cherington or even Lacava.
A better play would be to sign 2 FA actual starters to multi-year deals and fill in the last few spots internally. It would actually give them a better chance of separating the wheat from the chaff.
Another good move would be moving Shapiro completely out of baseball ops and giving Atkins' job to someone like Cherington or even Lacava.
UWHabs
Well-known member
I'm not totally opposed to bringing in a guy like Gerrit Cole, who's still under 30, to be the new ace, and then letting the rest of the guys sort themselves out. That would be kind of like what the Cubs did with signing Lester a year or two before they really broke out.
None of the other arms really interests me, though. Maybe Wheeler, as he has less innings on his arms than other guys, but I worry you pay for his last year numbers and those are the ones that are the outlier for him. Bumgarner has too many innings on his arm that I worry about him, and Ryu is older than fits our timeline. None of the other guys out there really have much going for them, so I honestly don't mind just keeping all 5 spots open for guys we have now in the system or reclamation projects like a Shoemaker was this year. That is, unless if one of the other FA guys out there goes unsigned for a while - I'd definitely bring in a guy like Alex Wood if we can get him for a small commitment maybe with some options, and see if he can rebound.
And sure, dumping Shapiro would be nice too, but it's not like the other guys brings a SP with them in the deal either. Although frankly, we all know that's not happening - Shapiro was brought in for the long term, and he wants a guy like Atkins who will defer to him when needed, so unless if Rogers has a total change of mind, or Shapiro is just way too fed up with Rogers not giving in on payroll or stadium upgrades, he's here to stay.
manny
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Remember, if your plan includes multiple seasons of incompetence fewer will complain.
worm
Well-known member
whatever analytics they are using to find those gems they need to stop using
it is not working
- they seem to be good at evaluating draft age players though....the draft and SWR
UWHabs
Well-known member
Especially if they trade Giles (like they should), they need to bring in at least a few new arms in the rotation and pen, otherwise they're going to blow a lot of games, and that's going to be tough for any young team to take.
But if they can bring in a couple arms, the office definitely has the potential to be something special, and at the very least they should be a more fun team to watch.
But if they can bring in a couple arms, the office definitely has the potential to be something special, and at the very least they should be a more fun team to watch.