MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
They've actually been hilariously unsuccessful at draft/develop, which is obviously ironic given Shapiro chewing out AA for trading prospects.
OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
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They've actually been hilariously unsuccessful at draft/develop, which is obviously ironic given Shapiro chewing out AA for trading prospects.
MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
Well-known member
These guys are arrogant and think they are the smartest people in the room. Jokes on them.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
These are bullshit quotes, hopefully they will still add an impact bat or two. There are quite a few DH/LF types still available who can hit.
If they do that, considering how limp Chapman's bat was after April, maybe IKF could be a discount Matt if the D is elite. And despite the constant naysaying, Davis Schneider, Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger could absolutely contribute at 2B/3B in 2024.
If they do that, considering how limp Chapman's bat was after April, maybe IKF could be a discount Matt if the D is elite. And despite the constant naysaying, Davis Schneider, Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger could absolutely contribute at 2B/3B in 2024.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I love how the goalposts shift every winter. From "lol, you're making fun of them running back a playoff team" to "maybe a guy with a 80wRC+ who has never been a fulltime 3B in his life could replace chapman"
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Chapman bat wasn’t as bad overall as people think. If IKF is in line for 600 PA then any positive regression is wiped by the colossal downgrade he represents. He’s a fucking replacement player ffs. If the SP takes almost any hit this team isn’t a playoff team
They need two bats and a Time Machine
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Next will be hyping are very thin positional prospects.
IKF is fine cause we have Orelvis, Barger and Parmesan cheese in the wings
axlsalinger
Well-known member
I'm talking about the short-term, as I do think Orelvis may be getting close, though I'm not sure if his D will play at 3rd or not. I don't mind IKF as a super-util but not a long-term starter.
They may have gotten the sense that Chapman/Boras are looking elsewhere or holding out for a ridiculous contract. Though they could still be looking at a trade instead.
Bring in Rhys Hoskins to DH and a bat-first OF, and there's every reason to expect (big) bounce-back seasons from Vlad and to a lesser extent Kirk.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Its going to be just Joc, and youll still apologize for them
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Still insane, over any term.
Eh, I don't know if you should be counting on a kid who had a 105 wRC+ in AAA last year and "only" a 122 in AA is smart, especially when the glove maybe isn't ever going to be playable there. Maybe the kid tears the cover off of the ball in the 1st half and earns a summer call up, but there's a reason he was moved to 2B after the move to Buffalo last year. It's probably 2B or LF for him going forward.
Eh, I think they're a lot more likely to bring in a cheaper shorter term DH. As for Vlad, I hope for a bounce back but I'm also not convinced that we didn't fuck him up at the plate. As for Kirk, I don't know if banking on a contact hitter with gap power and league worst footspeed to be an impact offensive player is a smart play. At this point his career looks like a whole lot of average at the plate bookending a 1st half heater in 2022.
manny
Well-known member
Hoskins isn’t getting more than one year, and he may be finished. Still, I’d take the risk as long as he isn’t the only bat they add. Still prefer JDM at DH.
What was the point of this Atkins press conference? I guess optimistically he’s sending a signal to FA like Chapman and Bellinger that they’re not going to overpay out of desperation. More realistically, it’s probably to say the team you see now is basically the team they’re going into the season with, except for “one or two, closer to one” addition.
FFS these guys.
What was the point of this Atkins press conference? I guess optimistically he’s sending a signal to FA like Chapman and Bellinger that they’re not going to overpay out of desperation. More realistically, it’s probably to say the team you see now is basically the team they’re going into the season with, except for “one or two, closer to one” addition.
FFS these guys.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Soler will cost 4 years, so he's out
Rhys porbably wants to play 1B and is too risky, so i doubt it
JDM is the best realistic scenario, but these losers probably want someone who can play the field once a week so it's probably the much worse Joc or Turner
The team will struggle to hit, fans will revolt, Schneider will be fired, Mattingly in, SP injuries, miss playoffs, fire Atkins, new guy sells Vlad and Bo for worse, younger MLB players to sell a re-tool as opposed to a rebuild, eat arby's then die
Rhys porbably wants to play 1B and is too risky, so i doubt it
JDM is the best realistic scenario, but these losers probably want someone who can play the field once a week so it's probably the much worse Joc or Turner
The team will struggle to hit, fans will revolt, Schneider will be fired, Mattingly in, SP injuries, miss playoffs, fire Atkins, new guy sells Vlad and Bo for worse, younger MLB players to sell a re-tool as opposed to a rebuild, eat arby's then die
axlsalinger
Well-known member
RE: DH, forgot about JD Mart, him or Rhys would be fine.
I've heard some minor league eval guys impressed by the way Orelvis improved his K% and power potential, he's not that far off. I do think if he's playing well we'll see him in the summer. However, I've also heard the 3B-D is shaky so yeah, he may wind up at 2B.
I do think you've gotta take Atkins at face value though it's quite possibly a message for Chappy/Boras, or Bellinger.
Kirk has got to prove it, for sure. As for Vlad I feel very confident a big rebound year is coming.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I'm just going off of the contract projections I'm seeing elsewhere.
- 1 x 16.5 with an option (and admits that the market may be pushing that into a 2nd year guarantee and with an opt out for Rhys)
- 2 x 18
- 3 x 16
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
He's always had iffy bat to ball skills, and a 105 wRC+ in AAA doesn't suggest that he's close.
They tried him at 3B when he got the call up to AAA and moved him over to 2B to finish the season there. They may try him again at 3B just because of the organizational need, but based off of everything I've read about his defence, we shouldn't be bullish on his ability to play on the left side of the diamond at all. Bad foot work, bad reaction time, weird arm slot.
He might make a contribution for the major league club this year, but I don't think a team considering itself a playoff threat should be going into the season with that being part of a plan, at any position.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
You have to consider all your options if the alternative is to pay Matt Chapman $175 million dollars for 6-8 years or whatever the fuck they're asking for.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Option A: 4 WAR situation for 25 million a year
Option B: 0 WAR situation for 7.5 million a year
Like I've said numerous times, when you want to win this year you sometimes have to give zero fucks about 2028 and deal with it when it comes. IKF + Barger or someshit at 3B isn't an option if you want to win, it just fucking isn't. So the options are to sign the free agent for money, or hit the trade market really hard for the best player you can get.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
IKF was at 1.6 and 1.5 WAR the 2 years prior to last year, so it is disingenuous to write him off as a 0 WAR player. Though we both agree he shouldn't be the starting 3B.
As for Matt Chapman being such an amazing bat, here's his monthly wRC+ after a super-hot April. This is not 2028, this was 2023.
May - 63
June - 75
July - 154
August - 49
Sept/Oct - 75
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Eh, defensive value can be wonky and way more erratic than value with the bat, especially when we're talking about a guy switching positions when he comes here. His 21-22 SS WAR won't translate over to 3B just like Varsho's RF value didn't translate over to LF according to WAR despite spectacular numbers in LF. Position premiums are what they are.
So 2 months of the year he was incredible and the rest he sucked....cool. He still ended up a 110 wRC+ overall and that was goofiest, streakiest year of his career on a team where just about every stick suffered in some way compared to their career norms. If we got the same performance in 2024...elite glovework at 3B and 2 months where he carried the offence almost by himself, and 4 months you have to consider platooning him or hitting him 9th, I'd take it. We're not in a position to significantly downgrade a premium position and expect to compete. It's that simple. IKF isn't a 1.5 WAR 3B, the defensive value isn't linear between the positions like that. He's a 1-1.5 WAR starting SS (which is grim overall) who would be worth less at 3B than he is at SS.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Again, I do like Matt Chapman. But there is a limit to his value in both years and AAV. It's one thing if the last year or two of the deal sucks, but we need him to be a better hitter in those first few years. I'm just not sure he's a guy you want to overpay. And defense does start to decline into your 30s.
And I want to be clear, I am not advocating to start IKF at 3B, it's possible they could get away with it as a short-term stopgap but if Chapman signs elsewhere they should definitely be looking at the trade market.