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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MindzEye said:
But....what if Ralph Inner Falafel is actually better?

[/axl]
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I will help him out a bit, now I realize the sample size for IKF at 3B is small (basically a full season of innings over 5 season at 3B) but IKF might be a better fielder than Chapman today.

IKF (28y):

1207.1 innings/ 19 DRS


Chapman (last year, 30y):

1213.2 innings/ 12 DRS


And Chapman hit like IKF for all but 2 months last year
 
Assume you’re talking about Soler, here’s his WAR for the last 4 years:

Age 28: 0.3
29: -0.2
30: 0.4
31: 1.8

Just screams multi-year deal, no?

Whether it’s 2, 3 or 4 years, they’ll be lucky if he’s cumulatively replacement level.

1-year is a different story because if he sucks you can just cut him. I’m ok with that. Otherwise pretty much any of the other DH options are better choices.
 
Don’t mind getting a guy whose a lock for 35-40 hr even if everything else is rough around the edges, but not sure soler is that guy.
 
MindzEye said:
For one of the 3 seasons he signs for, historically speaking.
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.350 or better xwOBA in 5 of his last 6 seasons. (Three seasons of .360+)

Expected HR’s of 35, 38, 49 had he been playing home games at Rogers, in three of his last 5 seasons. (Two other years he was injured and only played 72gp and 42gp…and in the 42gp season he had 11 xHR at rogers center, 42 HR pace)

In his worst of his last 5 seasons, in 72gp in 2022, he was shifted on nearly 80% of the time, had a .268 wOBA vs .452 unshifted…..

So long as he’s healthy for 140gp I’d be bullish on getting 35+ HR, and a 350-360+ wOBA from him.

if you think he can’t be healthy 2/3 seasons, then yeah prob gonna be a dud….its a gamble I’d be more than happy to make if I’m the Jays tho.


As far as WAR goes, he’s obviously dragged down by his defense if you’re playing him in the field a ton, like he had been for NL teams over the years…..if you’re buying him primarily for his bat tho and a DH role. You’re relatively likely to get a 2+ WAR bat over 140gp+ imo.

Should be able to stay healthy by playing in the field less as well.
 
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Makes sense, WAR is WAR is WAR.

So if the price of offensive is not ideal, than the market inefficiency would be in Pitching.
 
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