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OT: World Politics

MindzEye said:
I'm sure there are some experts who can differentiate the sounds between different types of ordinance with a level of accuracy good enough to trust them. I sure as fuck wouldn't be trusting 2nd or 3rd hand accounts of their opinion though, or the opinion of anyone without a massive amount of experience with US guided bomb tech.
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yeah that was my main reason to run it by you, just to see if it was a common thing for anyone who keeps up on that general vicinity of military operations etc….to be sure that it wasn’t some sort of common knowledge that X sounds like Y …

Part of me is still suspicious of the fact their misfire just so happened to hit somewhere that would bring the most heat on Israel.

…..also in the recorded audio they mention the cemetery, but from video & IDF maps (and I believe satellite photos) we know the launch site was much further away than the cemetery.


ultimately I’m sure it’s just a crazy coincidence, the probabilities of it all is just so wild….
 
Does every Arab country have its own terrorist group the way every major US city has a professional sports team??

Fucking "Houthis" now. How do they dare attack?
 
Montana said:
yeah that was my main reason to run it by you, just to see if it was a common thing for anyone who keeps up on that general vicinity of military operations etc….to be sure that it wasn’t some sort of common knowledge that X sounds like Y …

Part of me is still suspicious of the fact their misfire just so happened to hit somewhere that would bring the most heat on Israel.

…..also in the recorded audio they mention the cemetery, but from video & IDF maps (and I believe satellite photos) we know the launch site was much further away than the cemetery.


ultimately I’m sure it’s just a crazy coincidence, the probabilities of it all is just so wild….
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Misfires are really common on Hamas rockets. I've seen videos showing 20 launches with 5-6 misfires before. Eventually one of those misfires is going to hit something a bit more noteworthy than some poor families house.
 
MindzEye said:
Misfires are really common on Hamas rockets. I've seen videos showing 20 launches with 5-6 misfires before. Eventually one of those misfires is going to hit something a bit more noteworthy than some poor families house.
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I think I saw some crazy stat that like 18% of Hamas rockets land in Gaza.

So, this wasn't even some unique occurrence.
 


Yeah, I don't think they really want the smoke that they think they want.

Uncle Sam learned their Iraq lesson. Don't put boots on the ground and the American public kind of doesn't care what they do.
 
And to add, I've seen different numbers of between 7,000 and 12,000 rockets being fired from Gaza towards Israel in the past week.

Which means, around 1,260 to 2,160 rockets fired by Hamas have landed on the heads of their own people in that time.

Yet the internets are flooded with war crimes accusations against Israel.

When you see a video on IG of Palestinians trying to get people out of a blasted building in Gaza, how exactly do we know that the building wasn't blasted by Hamas? Doesn't matter though because in an instant that video goes global and the captions all blame Israel regardless.
 
MindzEye said:
Misfires are really common on Hamas rockets. I've seen videos showing 20 launches with 5-6 misfires before. Eventually one of those misfires is going to hit something a bit more noteworthy than some poor families house.
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very true….I guess the other thing for me that differentiates this from those, is how big/loud the explosion was….to the point of confusing everyone on the ground about it being a too big to be a Hamas/IJ rocket.

The idea it had so much fuel remaining is what caused that, makes sense….but then I’d also expect that to be the case with any misfires people on the ground should be hearing somewhat frequently.



again, just a weird probabilities thing where it all aligned just right for them…
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
And to add, I've seen different numbers of between 7,000 and 12,000 rockets being fired from Gaza towards Israel in the past week.

Which means, around 1,260 to 2,160 rockets fired by Hamas have landed on the heads of their own people in that time.

Yet the internets are flooded with war crimes accusations against Israel.
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they held up this photo during one of the pressers showing all the misfires from 21’..

C9885ED4-94FE-42E5-ABB4-C38173342982.jpeg


which now actually brings me back to that original probabilities query, because the vast majority of these ~70-80% appear to simply fall short and cluster around the borders, versus have a trajectory like what we saw….(I’m gonna cling to a 3-5% chance of a Hamas/IJ false flag op here)

08CC5F5D-317F-4EF9-BEA6-6165FB149E3E.jpeg


LeafOfFaith said:
When you see a video on IG of Palestinians trying to get people out of a blasted building in Gaza, how exactly do we know that the building wasn't blasted by Hamas? Doesn't matter though because in an instant that video goes global and the captions all blame Israel regardless.
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Looking for that map above I found some interesting info on that…

C7C76DE1-3281-4598-B955-70B1321856C6.jpeg
 
Yeah, and while they’ll lean on their intel as heavily as possible & imo probably achieve some successful hostage rescues….doesn’t hurt to tell Hamas you’re just gonna boot fuck them regardless, so they can ditch any fanciful ideas of “fair swaps” they had in mind.

Let them come grovelling for any deal they can get, versus the 4,000 prisoners for 200 hostages they were dreaming of.
 
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BBC Monitoring – Essential Media Insight

BBC Monitoring reports and analyses news from media around the world. Access to local sources and unrivalled understanding of the world's media mean our subscribers are uniquely well-informed about developments that matter to them.
monitoring.bbc.co.uk monitoring.bbc.co.uk

from Shayan Sardarizadeh, the disinformation specialist guy.
 
Montana said:
Yeah, and while they’ll lean on their intel as heavily as possible & imo probably achieve some successful hostage rescues….doesn’t hurt to tell Hamas you’re just gonna boot fuck them regardless, so they can ditch any fanciful ideas of “fair swaps” they had in mind.

Let them come grovelling for any deal they can get, versus the fanciful 4,000 prisoners for 200 hostages they were dreaming of.
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I question whether there’s any opportunity left for them to make a deal.

I think Israel is going in there with outright elimination in mind. Unless there’s some unconditional surrender, whether total or in limited pockets, I believe they’re going to kill every last terrorist that puts up a fight. And they’ll prosecute the rest.

Trade deadline passed on October 7 for these monsters.
 
I don’t have much faith in Hamas in this respect, but I think returning all hostages opens up humanitarian corridors, turns electricity etc back on, and maybe some other minor concessions that might actually entice Hamas. (Would they swap life sentences + surrender of hostages for death sentences?)

….but yeah, any dream they had of getting something remotely close to meaningful was never gonna happen.

In fact maybe absolutely nothing is considered to solidify that pulling this kind of stunt will never get you a penny in return. That deterrent might be more valuable than the hostages, if it prevents it from every happening again.

(and even then, I think intel + boots on the ground gets them some hostage rescues regardless)
 
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