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OT: World Politics

lecoqsportif said:
Something like that. But… this is ugly.

They need to be able to self-govern, realize their economic, social and cultural potential (without being hamstrung by external forces) and guarantee peaceful coexistence with their neighbours. For the next magic trick, we’ll turn the moon into cheese. Right? This is feels naive and too big.
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To me those are the two big ones, they need to be able to flourish economically without any unnecessary external hindrances placed on them…quite the opposite all those countries you mentioned should be pumping money in there to get them going, because the faster they’re in a better place economically than they ever were under Hamas, the better your chances of preventing other terrorist orgs from taking over.


lecoqsportif said:
So maybe start with the fundamentals. Governance over things like water and electricity. They can never be allowed to be cut off like that again. And yeah, some kind of Marshall Plan, led by the Arab League.
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I think if Israel is going to open the borders at all to allow for more trade, etc….something will need to be done in terms of setting up intelligence services on the ground….could a third party or some sort of multinational agency get put together that works with Mossad/Shin Bet to give them the best anti-terror intel possible from within Gaza….without having the negative optics that would come with Israeli soldiers policing in there?



all a pipe dream, but hopefully with all these talks some sort of post-war plan of sorts is being worked on. cause if the tunnels are blown out, and they’re just left to their own devices to fester, won’t matter if Hamas is wiped out or not. That’ll be a cancer that comes back with a vengeance down the road.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Even if Hamas is totally destroyed we (the royal we) will be dealing with, I think, a more radicalized Average Palestinian.

They will be giga-pissed, regardless if they supported Hamas or not. In fact, I suspect Hamas will likely be irrelevant at that point. This will be a challenge for everyone… Saudi, Iran, the West, UN, Egypt, etc. (No point in listing the obvious…)

Not sure how this is gonna play out.
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I don't enough about the subject matter (so correct me if I'm wrong) but isn't Hamas kind of like a minor leaguer compared to Hezbollah?
 
lecoqsportif said:
Even if Hamas is totally destroyed we (the royal we) will be dealing with, I think, a more radicalized Average Palestinian.

They will be giga-pissed, regardless if they supported Hamas or not. In fact, I suspect Hamas will likely be irrelevant at that point. This will be a challenge for everyone… Saudi, Iran, the West, UN, Egypt, etc. (No point in listing the obvious…)

Not sure how this is gonna play out.
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meh not sure why this one will change sentiments any more than 2006 2008 or 2014
 
lecoqsportif said:
So maybe start with the fundamentals. Governance over things like water and electricity. They can never be allowed to be cut off like that again. And yeah, some kind of Marshall Plan, led by the Arab League.
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One big chess piece there is that the natural gas field Gaza Marine first discovered in 2000 by BG group…..yada yada yada…was signed back to Palestinians in June.

7C174ACE-F59F-4288-9E88-9573572E732C.jpeg

So some coalition of those countries you mentioned helping get this up and running as quickly as possible, while others help build some infrastructure & maybe a new Power Planet? So they could power the strip themselves & have a nice injection into the economy, while giving them energy independence….which could obviously go a long way in smoothing things over post-war, after they’ve experienced this stint without it.


can even dust off this Energy Project Policy Brief from 2014 that broadly lays it all out…decent quick read, only 10 pages.

 
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mbow30 said:
meh not sure why this one will change sentiments any more than 2006 2008 or 2014
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I hear ya, and it gives me pause too.

The difference this time, maybe, is that the Hamas organization would be destroyed. I think that is a difference, even if the ideology persists. So, then what? Try to create conditions to chip away at that ideology.

Also, I wonder about the Abraham Accords. Those are new too, and they f@cked up. MBZ, MBS, the US, etc. can’t pretend that détente with Israel is feasible if they don’t meaningfully include a path to Palestinian reconciliation and development.

The alternative is just more if the same shit, and the risks and consequences will get worse IMO. This is the kind scenario that could lead to severe unrest in countries like Egypt and Jordan, which is no bueno.
 
oscarheyman said:
I don't enough about the subject matter (so correct me if I'm wrong) but isn't Hamas kind of like a minor leaguer compared to Hezbollah?
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Yeah, kinda. But the citizens who live in Gaza have a very different reality than folks in Lebanon. It’s like a non-state buffer zone run by a narco-terrorist fanatics.
 
lecoqsportif said:
This excerpt says it all:

Ultimately the decision will be political, but, in economic terms, the case for the exploitation of Gaza Marine is strong.
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Israel did approve the Egypt sponsored project to develop the Marine field for Gaza just this past June tho…so that hurdle had been overcome,

…now obviously the attacks could lead to them revoking that approval, and I'm sure they will…..but if they successfully wipe Hamas off the map, and then have the additional benefit of now knowing that 0 of the funds from the project could end up in Hamas hands?….might make it easier to stomach and utilize as an olive branch with the Palestinians in Gaza.

Even if Hamas is totally destroyed we (the royal we) will be dealing with, I think, a more radicalized Average Palestinian.

They will be giga-pissed, regardless if they supported Hamas or not.
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5,365 Palestinian fatalities in the Gaza Strip between 2008-2021….and I think the last number I saw was 3,785 already, before a ground offensive even kicks off.*

Level of overall destruction etc will be on another scale as well, so yeah I’d say it’s safe you’re likely correct it’s going to be a populace ripe for radicalization, and something everyone would be smart to try to address up front, post-war.



59BEE8A1-417E-4515-BFE8-470FED24E64E.jpeg
 
Up until the beginning of the 20th century Jews and Arabs had a common antagonist: Christians.

This horrifying time will right itself. I have faith in humanity.
 
Aside: look at some of the principals in the FTX fraud. Precocious offspring of MIT and Stanford professors. A stunning mix of hubris, cluelessness and entitlement.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Aside: look at some of the principals in the FTX fraud. Precocious offspring of MIT and Stanford professors. A stunning mix of hubris, cluelessness and entitlement.
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To add to this aside, Nick Hanauer’s talk with Michael Sandal on The Tyrrany of Merit is a must listen

‎Pitchfork Economics with Nick Hanauer: The Tyranny of Merit (with Michael Sandel) on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Pitchfork Economics with Nick Hanauer, Ep The Tyranny of Merit (with Michael Sandel) - Sept 26, 2023
podcasts.apple.com
 
lecoqsportif said:
And during the height of the pandemic it turned out the essential workers were nurses, truck drivers and grocery clerks.

No one gave a shit about derivatives traders.
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Or lawyers.

Or accountants

Or actuaries.

Or any of the “professional class”

Then we betrayed them - the essential workers.

If you come from a working class, background, or a background of people who don’t come from generational middle class education it’s likely you have family members who are truckers that you love and care about who may even have been in Ottawa.

It’s easy to have compassion and understand the complaint.

Again, I urge everyone here to listen to that pitchfork economics podcast because it slaps in the face to much of the stuff that was said here about the essential workers, many of whom I know, so resented how long the little nepo baby fucker running this country kept things locked down and have compassion for uncertain people who didn’t “trust the science”. The arrogance was staggering.

But some of the blind spots of the “professional class types” including those here are staggering.

Class matters way more than people are comfortable admitting.
 
Still on this aside but it applies.

National boundaries, national borders, nationalism all involved, so the powerful would be able to find ways to steal from the peasant class

Scott Galloway talked about this in his most recent podcast. Slavery exclusion of the ring on Waze again for those who have to justify why they do over those who have not.

We need to respect these people are willing to do the jobs that we are unwilling to do a lot more.

This is one of my favourite Toronto star articles of the last 20 years:

The social contract of white working-class men — it isn’t wonderful and it has come due

In exchange for doing society’s ugly work, these men have been sold a bill of goods that they are the best, and taught that might makes right.
www.thestar.com
 
My original point was about the 1% of the 1% of the US plutocratic class committing a vast financial crime. Virtually no one in Canada’s professional classes can relate to the MIT/Stanford bubble, frankly.
 
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