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The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

There's no getting through to you where the Leafs are concerned. Pathological.

So seriously, please just stop.
 
Montana said:
so this time around, lady logic takes a backseat and emotion takes the wheel?


We were the better team in games one and two, and played like shit in game three...should be 2-1 Leafs.



yes this is how luck works….it checks to see if we got too much last round, and then balances it out the next round. It’s absolutely not something that is game to game/event by event.

if you care about the “net basis” of luck….you should be tallying up every Leafs run, and coming to the opposite conclusion you have, no?
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They've been the worse team at 5 on 5 in all but 1 game this series. And that 1 game where they were "better" it was basically dead even (50.9% to 49.1%. This isn't about emotion.. I'm reading the same data you are, just without the blue tinted goggles. I agree they are unlucky to not have won 1 game based on how close game 2 and 3 were, but to say the Leafs should be up 2-1 is taking serious creative license with the data at hand. And to assume they are entitled to a cup or a won series despite playing a very pedestrian/mediocre game and haven't really dominated at any single moment (as most cup champs do in many stretches of their playoff runs, making "luck" become less of a factor) is also not the best approach. If every game is gonna be tight enough that your only hope in winning is being the luckier team, then you're probably not gonna win a cup. It just isn't how it works, even mathematically speaking.

Totally agree with your concept of luck being a major factor in this sport, but man you are really taking it too far. It has been my thing for years but I can't get on board with how far you have taken it.
 
Preston said:
They've been the worse team at 5 on 5 in all but 1 game this series.
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real life counts special teams.

This isn't about emotion.
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sure it is…you’re ignoring events that actually transpired, to sell yourself on your narrative.


I'm reading the same data you are, just with all my emotions clouding my view.
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yep.

I agree they are unlucky to not have won 1 game based on how close game 2 and 3 were, but to say the Leafs should be up 2-1 is taking serious creative license with the data at hand.
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it’s really not….it’s actually taking the data in hand, and not excluding a huge chunk of it to fit my narrative.

im discussing what actually happened….you’re discussing what happened, minus the special teams moments that don’t fit your narrative.


And to assume they are entitled to a cup or a won series despite playing a very pedestrian/mediocre game and haven't really dominated at any single moment
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we had more xG in each of games one and two individually…than they had in both combined. lol.
(as most cup champs do in many stretches of their playoff runs, making "luck" become less of a factor) is also not the best approach.
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Dom’s model had us as 65% favourites….we put ourselves in a great position to beat them. Including dominating games one and two in expected goals. An ideal approach to winning games.

If every game is gonna be tight enough that your only hope in winning is being the luckier team, then you're probably not gonna win a cup. It just isn't how it works, even mathematically speaking.
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everyone bows down to the luck….winners and the losers, no one is impervious to it playing a huge role, regardless of how your team is built.

Totally agree with your concept of luck being a major factor in this sport, but man you are really taking it too far. It has been my thing for years but I can't get on board with how far you have taken it.
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Thats an argument for you and your old self…..past Presto was being more logical tho,
 
…but honestly our whole debate boils down to, you only really want to focus on 5v5 as quantitative of how well a team did or didn’t play. (And is the best when looking at large data sets for a season, roster construction…you want it to be predictive….but game to game you’ll have huge variances, and you’re not making big picture decisions on one game samples.)

the data for one game, has to include all events….they’re descriptive. And the data describes two games we definitively deserved to win, based on the events that transpired on the Ice.

Oddly enough our “luck” came in game 3 where we didn’t deserve to make it to OT and in theory could have stolen one.
 
Unrelated to all this, so not contrarian based, Leafs are winning the next two games. And I'm betting a little on them winning the Cup at 25-1. Because why not?
 
Preston said:
I'm still holding a position. I just don't agree that getting outplayed at 5 on 5 in nearly every game of the playoffs is the best way to win a cup. Call me crazy, but banking your cup hopes on "luck" ain't a winning a method.
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you’ve now created a new narrative that claims I bank on luck……couldn’t be further from the truth. I’m just consciously aware of how huge a factor it is game to game.

I’m not trying to predict anything this team is or isn’t capable of, in terms of winning this years Cup…..only that we deserve better this series, and making emotional decisions because we’re down three-0….isn’t my bag.

Im analyzing what’s happened. That’s it.
 
CH1 said:
Unrelated to all this, so not contrarian based, Leafs are winning the next two games. And I'm betting a little on them winning the Cup at 25-1. Because why not?
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tonight buys us a chance to keep playing.…a second win tho, can put some doubt in their minds and it’s then wide open, imo.

(although Boston sure never made them ever doubt themselves, 😂)
 
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