The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

I'm still holding a position. I just don't agree that getting outplayed at 5 on 5 in nearly every game of the playoffs is the best way to win a cup. Call me crazy, but banking your cup hopes on "luck" ain't a winning a method.

 

[Preston]

Oddly enough our “luck” came in game 3 where we didn’t deserve to make it to OT and in theory could have stolen one.

Game 3 was actually one of their better ones 5 on 5. They didn't get any PPs and their big boys were horrific but the rest of the team was actually quite good. Big guys show up even a little, and they probably dominate that game. A PP would have been nice too.. I thought early on Florida had little answer for the Leafs powerplay early on in the series, but PP proficiency is far more volatile throughout a series as adjustments are made and there is a lesser sample and whatnot so you cannot bank on that continuing based on historical data.

I'm fixated on 5 on 5 because it is the best predictor of future success.. the fact that they have not played well at evens all playoff and post-deadline is a gigantic red flag. That is a large sample size. And as we know based on historical data, teams with mediocre 5 on 5 nerdies NEVER win cups. So the disappointment is that this has continued throughout 2 rounds of the playoffs. And now we're talking about how unlucky they were that they haven't won as many coin flip games as Florida this series. But if that's what you're relying on you won't go very far.

 

[Artnes]

 

[Montana]

Leafs have the

I'm fixated on 5 on 5 because it is the best predictor of future success..

Right….instead of wisely using single game data descriptively, you’re trying to make large sweeping claims on the team as a whole, over statistically meaningless samples of data.

Deep down I know there is no chance you’d objectively believe that to be logical….hence my saying it’s emotional analysis.

 

[CH1]

I'm fixated on 5 on 5 because it is the best predictor of future success.. the fact that they have not played well at evens all playoff and post-deadline is a gigantic red flag. That is a large sample size. And as we know based on historical data, teams with mediocre 5 on 5 nerdies NEVER win cups. So the disappointment is that this has continued throughout 2 rounds of the playoffs. And now we're talking about how unlucky they were that they haven't won as many coin flip games as Florida this series. But if that's what you're relying on you won't go very far.

this is a salient point that nobody else has seem to pick up on

 

[Jeremy]

CH CH CH CH CH CH

 

[Montana]

Game 3 was actually one of their better ones 5 on 5.

Florida had 70% odds of winning….3.57 xG to our 2.33….based on the entirety of events that actually transpired.

 

[Jeremy]

Preston Preston Preston Preston Preston Preston

 

[Montana]

this is a salient point that nobody else has seem to pick up on

if he wants to change to discussion being had, to massively expand the data set (while also excluding everything that came before it this season, so only the smaller one can be used).

then yes, a salient point could be made about our deadline additions….but I’ve not said a thing about that, or commented on it.

im discussing the events that have transpired this series…..if we were up 2-1, im fairly confident his tune would be different.

 

[Preston]

Leafs have the


Right….instead of wisely using single game data descriptively, you’re trying to make large sweeping claims on the team as a whole, over statistically meaningless samples of data.

Deep down I know there is no chance you’d objectively believe that to be logical….hence my saying it’s emotional analysis.

I mean I've already noted that they've gotten unlucky to not win a game. That's different from saying they are playing like cup contenders and is the main reason for the disappointment from some this year vs last year, for example. HOW they win/lose matters. And none of that has been positive for a long while yet.

You ask why people are disappointed or upset.. this is why. That's a different discussion than saying the Leafs were unlucky to not win a game, which we obviously know is true.

 

[Preston]

Florida had 70% odds of winning….3.57 xG to our 2.33….based on the entirety of events that actually transpired.

Context is important when evaluating performance. 2 PPs for Florida and 0 for Toronto is the cause of this. So yes, based on the PPs, Florida was more LIKELY to win. But are you talking about who is more LIKELY to win or who is more DESERVING to win? 2 different discussions. I care a hell of a lot more about deserving because it is more repeatable than depending on a special teams advantage to win games.

 

[CH1]

if he wants to change to discussion being had, to massively expand the data set (while also excluding everything that came before it this season, so only the smaller one can be used).

then yes, a salient point could be made about our deadline additions….but I’ve not said a thing about that, or commented on it.

im discussing the events that have transpired this series…..if we were up 2-1, im fairly confident his tune would be different.

Sure, there is no getting around emotions when assessing most things (including home prices and stocks) but IMO, he'd still have a nagging feeling of "we're not playing as well as we should be, and eventually that will bite us unless it changes"

 

[Preston]

I mean I wasn't happy with their performance vs Tampa either. It was always going to eventually bite them if it continued, and here we are.

 

[Montana]

I mean I've already noted that they've gotten unlucky to not win a game.

two.

That's different from saying they are playing like cup contenders

I haven’t said we‘re playing like Cup contenders, we can be better than we’ve shown….but we did also dispose of the three time Eastern Conference finalist, in 6 games…..and we’re 5th in the NHL in in Expected Goal % 5v5, 3rd in PP.

HOW they win/lose matters. And none of that has been positive for a long while yet.

beating Tampa in 6 games, wasnt even a positive for you?

You ask why people are disappointed or upset.. this is why.

im saying some are being emotional and illogical.

That's a different discussion than saying the Leafs were unlucky to not win a game, which we obviously know is true.

we’re unlucky to not have won 2…..and if we had, all these more emotional takes, would be nonexistent for the most part.

 

[Habsy]

You may come out.

Next time, son, no ice.

Didn't know what "neat" meant.

Hate it that I have to explain it to servers sometimes.

 

[Montana]

Sure, there is no getting around emotions when assessing most things (including home prices and stocks) but IMO, he'd still have a nagging feeling of "we're not playing as well as we should be, and eventually that will bite us unless it changes"

agreed.

just far more emotion doing the talking atm, imo,

 

[Montana]

I mean I wasn't happy with their performance vs Tampa either. It was always going to eventually bite them if it continued, and here we are.

did you prefer outplaying them, and losing?

 

[Habsy]

this is a salient point that nobody else has seem to pick up on

PP reliant

 

[thehabhater]

Didn't know what "neat" meant.

Hate it that I have to explain it to servers sometimes.

He thought that "neat" means on a nice tray...

 

[Montana]

Context is important when evaluating performance. 2 PPs for Florida and 0 for Toronto is the cause of this. So yes, based on the PPs, Florida was more LIKELY to win. But are you talking about who is more LIKELY to win or who is more DESERVING to win? 2 different discussions. I care a hell of a lot more about deserving because it is more repeatable than depending on a special teams advantage to win games.

You’re removing events that occurred, so you can tell yourself we didn’t deserve it.

…all the events that occur have to be factored in, if youre descriptively discussing who deserved to win an individual game.