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The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

zeke said:
let me complete that analysis. when they signed the deal, these were the reasonable projections as to the percentage of cap his hit would take up in each year:

Yr1: 14.0%
Yr2: 13.5%
Yr3: 13.0%
Yr4: 12.5%
Yr5: 12.0%

For an average of 13% per year. So that's the approximate cap percentage they negotiated for on that 5yr deal.

NHL has also projected approximate 5% increases for 24-25 to $87.5 and 25-26 to $92.0. If we extend that out to 8 years then we're looking at about $123m in year 8 - that's if the cap increased 5% every year.

24-25 87.5
25-26 92.0
26-27 96.6
27-28 101.4
28-29 106.5
29-30 111.8
30-31 117.4
31-32 123.3

Average 104.6. 13% of that comes to $13.5m per year.

But again that's based on a very aggressive 5% increase every year. if it's only 3-4% per year after the initial projected large increases than you can chop a mil off that caphit down to around $12.5m.

And there are reasons to argue he should get a raise over that same 13% - i.e. UFA years worth more than RFA years - and reasons to argue against - i.e. age 27-34 are usually post-peak or decline years on average. I do have a feeling that both sides agreed when negotiating the original contract that peak years were much more relevant than UFA/RFA status. There's also the notion that he might agree to simply take a lower percentage or at least not ask for a raise over that 13% based on what happened during the first contract.

8 x $12.5 would make sense for a few reasons - it's pretty close to a reasonable estimate of 13% of the projected 8yrs future caps, and it wouldn't set any precedent as it would only match what McDavid and MacKinnon got (knowing full well that McDavid's next contract will be much bigger).

but if it's $13.5 i won't cry about it.
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From Dec 3, 2018, the source for NHL projecting an $83.0m cap for 2019-20: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-projects-83m-salary-cap-2019-20-season/

Matthews signed on Feb 5, 2019.

Then on Jun 22, 2019, the cap came in $1.5m lower than expected: https://www.si.com/nhl/2019/06/22/nhl-salary-cap-lower-than-projected-2019-20-season
 
Ultimately if he insists on $14+ million you give it to him because overpaying Matthews is better than not having Matthews.

But where does this idea come from? That a Leafs star players would never take less than they could possibly ask for, even though every other star player in the league does it? Seems like TSN panel and Hab fans are convinced. Maybe they’re right, I guess we’ll find out soon.
 
LOL....nobody cares what happened in 2019

the contract will price in expectations for 2025 and beyond
 
8 years @ $13.5 +/- 500k makes him the highest paid player in the league, is the 16% of the cap McDavid got. Thats a very good deal for the Leafs, and a sacrifice of potentially tens of millions of dollars over the 8 years by Matthews, which can be allocated to the players he gets to play with and make the team better. E

Not sure why everyone that isn't a Leafs fan is expecting Lebron shit from him and no other player in the NHL.
 
zeke said:
let me complete that analysis. when they signed the deal, these were the reasonable projections as to the percentage of cap his hit would take up in each year:

Yr1: 14.0%
Yr2: 13.5%
Yr3: 13.0%
Yr4: 12.5%
Yr5: 12.0%

For an average of 13% per year. So that's the approximate cap percentage they negotiated for on that 5yr deal.

NHL has also projected approximate 5% increases for 24-25 to $87.5 and 25-26 to $92.0. If we extend that out to 8 years then we're looking at about $123m in year 8 - that's if the cap increased 5% every year.

24-25 87.5
25-26 92.0
26-27 96.6
27-28 101.4
28-29 106.5
29-30 111.8
30-31 117.4
31-32 123.3

Average 104.6. 13% of that comes to $13.5m per year.

But again that's based on a very aggressive 5% increase every year. if it's only 3-4% per year after the initial projected large increases than you can chop a mil off that caphit down to around $12.5m.

And there are reasons to argue he should get a raise over that same 13% - i.e. UFA years worth more than RFA years - and reasons to argue against - i.e. age 27-34 are usually post-peak or decline years on average. I do have a feeling that both sides agreed when negotiating the original contract that peak years were much more relevant than UFA/RFA status. There's also the notion that he might agree to simply take a lower percentage or at least not ask for a raise over that 13% based on what happened during the first contract.

8 x $12.5 would make sense for a few reasons - it's pretty close to a reasonable estimate of 13% of the projected 8yrs future caps, and it wouldn't set any precedent as it would only match what McDavid and MacKinnon got (knowing full well that McDavid's next contract will be much bigger).

but if it's $13.5 i won't cry about it.
Click to expand...
Fool me once…
 
manny said:
Ultimately if he insists on $14+ million you give it to him because overpaying Matthews is better than not having Matthews.

But where does this idea come from? That a Leafs star players would never take less than they could possibly ask for, even though every other star player in the league does it? Seems like TSN panel and Hab fans are convinced. Maybe they’re right, I guess we’ll find out soon.
Click to expand...

I reject the premise that there are all these Auston Matthews clones out there doing that

I thought he was super elite..not just another star
 
It's funny to use Pasternak as an example when nobody here would trade Matthews for Pasternak
 
CH1 said:
I reject the premise that there are all these Auston Matthews clones out there doing that

I thought he was super elite..not just another star
Click to expand...
He is super elite. Along with a handful of other players in the league, none of whom have done what you’re convinced Matthews is going to do.
 
manny said:
He is super elite. Along with a handful of other players in the league, none of whom have done what you’re convinced Matthews is going to do.
Click to expand...

again small sample size bullshit that mostly took place within a once in a lifetime pandemic overhang that is finally lifting
 
What the difference in how front loaded a contract can be at 5 years vs 8?

I would imagine max front loading and signing bonus would make the 8 year deal very difficult to beat
 
trujaysfan said:
What the difference in how front loaded a contract can be at 5 years vs 8?

I would imagine max front loading and signing bonus would make the 8 year deal very difficult to beat
Click to expand...

front loading is especially attractive now because escrow payment is capped at 6% until 25/26 the last year of the current CBA
 
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