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The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

Basically everything I've been saying for a few years now, but in graph form.

Dubas put a dogshit group around the top 5 players we have and that dogshit group kept getting caved when the playoffs started. If the big 5 didn't save them (repeatedly...) we lose, every fucking time.
 
Tough to find the balance between keeping a clean balance sheet and making a bold swing for an Ekholm type. Dubas was mostly solid but I think he could have been a touch more aggressive in adding some talented scoring depth beyond the top dogs or adding a big time shutdown D. Tree has done that with the forwards... But I sort of hate their d right now, gonna be honest. I think the offseason was squandered a bit by wasting 4m on a d who might just be horrendous. Hope to hell I'm wrong.

Regardless, it'll be nice to get a different look up front.
 
Keeping a clean balance sheet (as well as a first rounder this yr) may have been his downfall. Sometimes you have to impulsively go all in. Makes me think he thought he wouldn’t leave TO… otherwise he would have sacrificed the future cap a bit more
 
I don't see any reason to hate it.

Leafs have been a top defensive team for a few years now and the difference this year from last is:

Sandin (52gms)/McCabe (21gms) ---> McCabe
Holl (80gms) --> Klingberg

Schenn (15gms)/Benn (12gms)/Mete (11gms)/Gustafsson (9gms) --> Benoit/Lagesson/Niemela/Villeneuve


Also our top 2 D last year each missed a quarter of the season.
 
The risks I see:
Brodie is 33 and may see an age-related downtick (low risk)
Gio is 40 (high risk but hopefully at least an adequate 5/6)
Liljegren continues to play like post-deadline Liljegren (low-med risk, though I may be letting recency bias eat at me)
Klingberg is just shit (nerdies say high risk, though my eyes may lean to medium or maybe low if ultra sheltered)
McCabe isn't a top 4 D (nerdies say low risk, though my eyes would say high risk)

I guess my main point is, in addition to Brodie and Gio being a year older, is that potentially Sandin > McCabe and Holl > Klingberg.

Not to mention, the Muzzin absence was very notable in the playoffs. I would love to have replaced his presence.
 
Preston said:
Tough to find the balance between keeping a clean balance sheet and making a bold swing for an Ekholm type. Dubas was mostly solid but I think he could have been a touch more aggressive in adding some talented scoring depth beyond the top dogs or adding a big time shutdown D. Tree has done that with the forwards... But I sort of hate their d right now, gonna be honest. I think the offseason was squandered a bit by wasting 4m on a d who might just be horrendous. Hope to hell I'm wrong.

Regardless, it'll be nice to get a different look up front.
Click to expand...
It's mind-boggling that with general consensus being his job was on the line, that he spent the last day fucking dumping Sandin and Engvall instead of rejigging the roster to keep those guys and go after another scorer. Like, McCabe is fine and all, and I'm hopeful he can show some nice upside going forward, but what the fuck are you doing as GM assembling 9 dmen while getting rid of your second most promising defender signed for fucking peanuts and RFA the next year? Dubas gradually got really bad at his job in TO, and went off a cliff last year.
 
CH1 said:
Keeping a clean balance sheet (as well as a first rounder this yr) may have been his downfall. Sometimes you have to impulsively go all in. Makes me think he thought he wouldn’t leave TO… otherwise he would have sacrificed the future cap a bit more
Click to expand...
He 100% had no intention to leave.

#dubiepsychology
 
They still need to replace Muzzin. McCabe is not a top 4 dman on a Cup team from what I've seen.

obviously the organization decided to give up on Sandin, a puzzling move given all the effort put into developing him.

Brodie is a year older, looked to be declining already last postseason, and the GM has made a joke about Giordano still playing at 75 years old.

Liljegren is still here, but so is the coach that clearly doesn't believe in him.

There is a reason Dubas had been trying to get big names like H. Lindholm, Karlsson, and Ekholm here.
 
Net rating had McCabe as around +5 guy at the end of the year - i.e. a good #3 dman. Sandin was traded prior to net rsting being a thing but he definitely was ranked lower than Lilly at the time and Lilly came in around +3/4 at the end of the year.

Holl and Klingberg both projected at -1 i think for the upcoming season during the signing period.

Of course when you think about it's actually McCabe replacing Holl in the tough matchups role and Klingberg replacing Sandin in the sheltered offensive role and that kinda looks like an upgrade on both tbh. Not to say that Sandin won't be better next year than he was this year of course

And sure Gio is old but Lilly is young.

And Rielly had a really bad injured year but his playoffs showed us he can still be elite and probably will be better with health.


The other convenient thing about Klingberg is that if he sucks then dumping him at the deadline gives us all the capspace we need for any deadline add. This is the kind of thing that helped the oilers land Ekholm (the barrie contract) and the bruins land a bunch of guys (Smith contract, Foligno/Reilly/Forbort ltirs).
 
zeke said:
The other convenient thing about Klingberg is that if he sucks then dumping him at the deadline gives us all the capspace we need for any deadline add. This is the kind of thing that helped the oilers land Ekholm (the barrie contract) and the bruins land a bunch of guys (Smith contract, Foligno/Reilly/Forbort ltirs).
Click to expand...
Yeah I like this part. I know some point to Shattenkirk as the preferred choice but throughout his career he has always said no to playing in Canada.. Though I'm sure if you give him the Klingberg contract it would be hard to say no.

So I'm not sure they really had other options that were THAT much better assuming Shattenkirk was a no. And Klingberg at least provides more upside than some of the safer guys like Dumba.

And if McCabe really is a #3 then that of course changes everything. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around that one and he's definitely no shutdown guy.

I don't know, I felt they could use an upgrade to get a shutdown type last year and haven't really changed my mind on that. Who knows when an Ekholm type will be available again.. Kyle really should have swung harder there because that was truly a perfect fit.
 
zeke said:
The other convenient thing about Klingberg is that if he sucks then dumping him at the deadline gives us all the capspace we need for any deadline add. This is the kind of thing that helped the oilers land Ekholm (the barrie contract) and the bruins land a bunch of guys (Smith contract, Foligno/Reilly/Forbort ltirs).
Click to expand...
Interesting possibility. I sort of just penciled him in for the whole year, but yeah, that's an easy contract to move.
 
Preston said:
Yeah I like this part. I know some point to Shattenkirk as the preferred choice but throughout his career he has always said no to playing in Canada.. Though I'm sure if you give him the Klingberg contract it would be hard to say no.

So I'm not sure they really had other options that were THAT much better assuming Shattenkirk was a no. And Klingberg at least provides more upside than some of the safer guys like Dumba.

And if McCabe really is a #3 then that of course changes everything. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around that one and he's definitely no shutdown guy.

I don't know, I felt they could use an upgrade to get a shutdown type last year and haven't really changed my mind on that. Who knows when an Ekholm type will be available again.. Kyle really should have swung harder there because that was truly a perfect fit.
Click to expand...
Shatt is shitt. Not a fan.

McCabe showed flashes of different things in that brief run. I need a closer, longer look at him over the season.
 
I think mccabe got a raw deal in the playoffs. It was really just Gio and Holl who shit the bed spectacularly.

Brodie got an even rawer deal - he was very good in the playoffs.
 
Shattenkirk has no offense anymore so he wasnt what Brad was going for. He took a risk to add offense.

The comparable that might hurt there is Gostisbehere.

And then Deangelo of course but he's a bit of a special case.
 
Brodie wasn't his typically flawless self last year. He like didn't have the same energy or something.

This coming from President of the Brodie Fan Club and a guy who says he's the Leafs' best defensive dman in all the years I've been a fan.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Brodie wasn't his typically flawless self last year. He like didn't have the same energy or something.

This coming from President of the Brodie Fan Club and a guy who says he's the Leafs' best defensive dman in all the years I've been a fan.
Click to expand...
They spent a lot more time defending than they usually do in the playoffs. Brodie was gassed and got caught on many long shifts. That was a systems issue more than anything.. Any d will look bad when they're playing that passive and forced to defend all game.

I'm not particularly worried about Brodie because I do think he had one of his best years in the season. But I did have to mention his age. He's getting up there. One year we'll see a downtick.
 
Playoff recap:

5v5 TOI & DZS%-OZS%

Brodie 11gms, 20:08, +8.9dzs%
McCabe 11gms, 19:08, +7.5dzs%
Rielly 11gms, 20:10, -4.5dzs%

Holl 8gms, 16:22, +7.5dzs%
Schenn 11gms, 16:29, -2.3dzs%
Liljegren 5gms, 14:40, -1.9dzs%
Giordano 11gms, 12:04, +2.5dzs%


Xga / ga

Schenn 2.16xga/60, 0.66ga/60
Rielly 2.24xga/60, 1.10ga/60
Brodie 2.25xga/60, 2.14ga/60
McCabe 2.30xga/60, 3.18ga/60

Liljegren 2.73xga/60, 2.57ga/60
Holl 3.05xga/60, 4.70ga/60
Gio 3.69xga/60, 5.11ga/60

McCabe was on the ice for too many goals against but the underlyings were still very good in very tough usage.

Holl was really bad in pretty tough usage.

Gio was just unfathomably bad even in light usage.
 
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