• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

LeafOfFaith said:
It doesn't surprise me that Jack's camp wants what basically seems like the minimum 1A starter's contract these days.

But will another team actually give him term on that, like 4-5 years? Doubt it. And does he really take the extra few bucks?
Click to expand...

Jack takes best deal on the table , no discounts

Never made big bucks and at 30 needs to secure his financial future
 
Wayward DP said:
okay I'm gonna do some legwork.

2021 UFAs ---|--- Yrs/AAV ---|--- 2021 SV% --|-- 2022 SV% --|-- Change
Grubauer - 6 x 5.9 m - .922 - .889 - (.034)
Ullmark - 4 x 5 m - .917 - .917 - .000***
Mrazek - 3 x 3.8 m - .923 - .888 - (.035)
Driedger - 3 x 3.5 m - .927 - .899 - (.028)
Broken muffin man - 2 x 4.5 m - .895 - .922 - .027
Brossoit - 2 x 2.325 m - .918 - .895 - (.023)
Optimus - 2 x 2.25 m - .906 - .911 - .005
Raanta - 2 x 2 m - .905 - .912 - .007

the above are, far as I can tell, a complete list of goalies who signed multi-year UFA deals last year. four of them badly underperformed their previous season, Fred had a miraculous resurgence, and the remaining three delivered performances in line with the previous year.

so of the 8, 5 had significant variance from year to year, and two of the remaining three 'consistent' ones were Reimer and Raanta who were not really 'starters'.

Ullmark looks like a good deal but he was outplayed and replaced by Swayman.

and Fred, who looks the best of the bunch, went AWOL during the playoffs.

so other than Raanta and Reimer, most of those UFA deals look like varying shades of shit for different reasons.

I would bet on Grubauer bouncing back at some point though, would be an interesting buy low option.

in terms of some of the remaining goalie UFA contracts last year (I included all that were > $1 m):

Halak - 1 x 3.0 m - .905 - .903 - (.002)
Holtby - 1 x 2.0 m - .892 - .913 - .021
Jones - 1 x 2.0 m - .896 - .900 - .004
Rittich - 1 x 1.25 m - .901 - .886 - (.015)
Rask - 1 x 1.0 m - .913 - .844 - (.069)

***lost starter's job in playoffs

my takeaway - goalies are indeed fucking assholes, controlled by voodoo from year to year. and, perhaps this is the salient point, paying UFA prices with term for them seems like a poor fucking investment.
Click to expand...

It’s tuff to take this into analysis without taking the team as part of it. Usually put an avg goalie in front of the leafs and we can make them win (look at the 4th stringer winning games for us). We got the shit luck of picking the guy that literally couldn’t stay healthy for a game.

Give us two fucken average goalies so we can make them all-stars like campbell.
 
Artnes said:
Hard to get much worse then 22nd (all) and 27th (5v5) team sv%
Click to expand...

the salient point here, aside from the drafting one of course.

the Leafs have generally done a poor job with goaltending lately. I don't know if that's Dubas or the scouting in that area or both. And now we need 2 good goalies. It's a tough spot.

we might have to take a chance on a Gibson (with some kind of retention of course). sure it could blow up in our face but I'd rather take a swing at improvement instead of hoping the fragile Campbell can be the guy. Jack was good value at 1.2m, but at 4-6m things are obviously different. If that is the cost to keep him, you need to evaluate your options.

if there are 2 cheap quality under the radar options out there that's fine too. the important part is not having it be a weakness on your team, which it is on ours at the moment. less so the cap hit. one thing is the Leafs have nothing in the system and don't have to worry about paying some up and coming hotshot.

I'm not counting on Vasi being .897 next time we play them. it would be nice to not get outgoaltended every season.
 
Bleedsblue&white said:
It all started with Rask and Pogge...my god, was there a bigger fuck-up?
Didn't just hurt us, helped Boston, been trying to find a guy since.
Click to expand...


The only consolation is the Bruins never won a Cup with Rask as their starter. But he still gave them a decade’s worth of consistently good #1 goaltending.

All while the Leafs own goaltending was largely a dumpster fire, and Pogge was on a never-ending tour through Europe in search of employment.
 
Volcanologist said:
the salient point here, aside from the drafting one of course.

the Leafs have generally done a poor job with goaltending lately. I don't know if that's Dubas or the scouting in that area or both. And now we need 2 good goalies. It's a tough spot.

we might have to take a chance on a Gibson (with some kind of retention of course). sure it could blow up in our face but I'd rather take a swing at improvement instead of hoping the fragile Campbell can be the guy. Jack was good value at 1.2m, but at 4-6m things are obviously different. If that is the cost to keep him, you need to evaluate your options.

if there are 2 cheap quality under the radar options out there that's fine too. the important part is not having it be a weakness on your team, which it is on ours at the moment. less so the cap hit. one thing is the Leafs have nothing in the system and don't have to worry about paying some up and coming hotshot.

I'm not counting on Vasi being .897 next time we play them. it would be nice to not get outgoaltended every season.
Click to expand...

Gibson would definitely be a swing for the fences that would probably put an exclamation point on this era of Leaf hockey one way or another. He's 29 to start next season, so basically mid prime for most goalies but he's been bad the last 3 seasons after being between good to vezina calibre the 4 seasons prior. Not sure what his injury history is, but there has to be something to explain his decline, no? If I had to choose between Gibson with 2M retention for non core young pieces (no Robertson, Sandin, Lilly, Knies, Niemela...but whatever else) vs Jack at 4x4.5 or some such bullshit, I'd probably prefer the mystery box. Gibson finding his form after getting away from a rebuild with no chance of winning could be what pushes us over the top.

Or, spending ~4.5 on a .905 goalie could be what sinks us.
 
Last 3 Years (Min 2500 FA)
1. Shesterkin - .927
2. Sorokin - .923
3. Kuemper .920
4. Saros - .919
5. Vasilevskiy - .918
Varlamov - .918
7. Dreidger.- .917
8. Ullmark - .916
Jarry - .916
10. Hellebuyck - .915
Forsberg - .915
Markstrom - .915
Raanta - .915
14. Merzlikins - .914
Talbot .914
...
20. Campbell - .912
Husso - .912
..
22. Freddy .911
Fleury .911
Reimer .911
...
38. Price/Gibson .904
40. Mrazak .902


Varly/Campbell. Best bet if you don't have a trustworthy goalie is to have two that are mostly trustworthy.
 
man I wonder if there is value to be had in pursuing one of the Kraken goalies. my gut tells me it is the opposite of the Carolina goalie effect, where average goalies become puckstopping gods once they play for Brindy. Both Grubauer and Driedger had like career worst years after signing there. Wonder if they're willing to give up one on the cheap...
 
leafman101 said:
Last 3 Years (Min 2500 FA)
1. Shesterkin - .927
2. Sorokin - .923
3. Kuemper .920
4. Saros - .919
5. Vasilevskiy - .918
Varlamov - .918
7. Dreidger.- .917
8. Ullmark - .916
Jarry - .916
10. Hellebuyck - .915
Forsberg - .915
Markstrom - .915
Raanta - .915
14. Merzlikins - .914
Talbot .914
...
20. Campbell - .912
Husso - .912
..
22. Freddy .911
Fleury .911
Reimer .911
...
38. Price/Gibson .904
40. Mrazak .902


Varly/Campbell. Best bet if you don't have a trustworthy goalie is to have two that are mostly trustworthy.
Click to expand...
Wouldn’t mind this. But the $$ part is a question.
 
Wayward DP said:
man I wonder if there is value to be had in pursuing one of the Kraken goalies. my gut tells me it is the opposite of the Carolina goalie effect, where average goalies become puckstopping gods once they play for Brindy. Both Grubauer and Driedger had like career worst years after signing there. Wonder if they're willing to give up one on the cheap...
Click to expand...

This might be the way.

Grubauer at 5x5.9 is nearly the same as the Gibson deal. Big money and risk for a guy with not much track record of being a workhorse. First season he plays over 40 games and he bombs. Expansion shit team but damn he had an ugly year. Avs let him walk as UFA and then paid a 1st+ Timmins+ cond 3rd for Kuemper.

Driedger has zero track record. 3.5 seems like a lot for a guy with 62 NHL games over 3 season. Good numbers in those games besides this year.

Big risks for Dubas.
 
All are a risk. Let's hope the choice is better this year. Gibson to me is just too long with mediocre numbers to bother, I'd rather try someone cheaper with a small sample size, but more recent strong numbers.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top