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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

hockeylover said:
not sure how many were ultimately good signings but it sure seemed like there was a bigger list of names last year.
Click to expand...
okay I'm gonna do some legwork.

2021 UFAs ---|--- Yrs/AAV ---|--- 2021 SV% --|-- 2022 SV% --|-- Change
Grubauer - 6 x 5.9 m - .922 - .889 - (.034)
Ullmark - 4 x 5 m - .917 - .917 - .000***
Mrazek - 3 x 3.8 m - .923 - .888 - (.035)
Driedger - 3 x 3.5 m - .927 - .899 - (.028)
Broken muffin man - 2 x 4.5 m - .895 - .922 - .027
Brossoit - 2 x 2.325 m - .918 - .895 - (.023)
Optimus - 2 x 2.25 m - .906 - .911 - .005
Raanta - 2 x 2 m - .905 - .912 - .007

the above are, far as I can tell, a complete list of goalies who signed multi-year UFA deals last year. four of them badly underperformed their previous season, Fred had a miraculous resurgence, and the remaining three delivered performances in line with the previous year.

so of the 8, 5 had significant variance from year to year, and two of the remaining three 'consistent' ones were Reimer and Raanta who were not really 'starters'.

Ullmark looks like a good deal but he was outplayed and replaced by Swayman.

and Fred, who looks the best of the bunch, went AWOL during the playoffs.

so other than Raanta and Reimer, most of those UFA deals look like varying shades of shit for different reasons.

I would bet on Grubauer bouncing back at some point though, would be an interesting buy low option.

in terms of some of the remaining goalie UFA contracts last year (I included all that were > $1 m):

Halak - 1 x 3.0 m - .905 - .903 - (.002)
Holtby - 1 x 2.0 m - .892 - .913 - .021
Jones - 1 x 2.0 m - .896 - .900 - .004
Rittich - 1 x 1.25 m - .901 - .886 - (.015)
Rask - 1 x 1.0 m - .913 - .844 - (.069)

***lost starter's job in playoffs

my takeaway - goalies are indeed fucking assholes, controlled by voodoo from year to year. and, perhaps this is the salient point, paying UFA prices with term for them seems like a poor fucking investment.
 
obviously, the only exception to my newly discovered rule are the Vasi, Shesty types of goalies. but these are few and far between. dunno if there are even more than 3 or 4 at a given time and the list seems to change year-year...
 
I'm now afraid to comment anything about goalies because every offseason we all look like absolute morons a year later. We all blame Dubas because he should have done this or that but the truth is we're all equally clueless about goaltending, Dubas included.

So yeah, maybe you're on to something there.
 
Wayward DP said:
okay I'm gonna do some legwork.

2021 UFAs ---|--- Yrs/AAV ---|--- 2021 SV% --|-- 2022 SV% --|-- Change
Grubauer - 6 x 5.9 m - .922 - .889 - (.034)
Ullmark - 4 x 5 m - .917 - .917 - .000***
Mrazek - 3 x 3.8 m - .923 - .888 - (.035)
Driedger - 3 x 3.5 m - .927 - .899 - (.028)
Broken muffin man - 2 x 4.5 m - .895 - .922 - .027
Brossoit - 2 x 2.325 m - .918 - .895 - (.023)
Optimus - 2 x 2.25 m - .906 - .911 - .005
Raanta - 2 x 2 m - .905 - .912 - .007

the above are, far as I can tell, a complete list of goalies who signed multi-year UFA deals last year. four of them badly underperformed their previous season, Fred had a miraculous resurgence, and the remaining three delivered performances in line with the previous year.

so of the 8, 5 had significant variance from year to year, and two of the remaining three 'consistent' ones were Reimer and Raanta who were not really 'starters'.

Ullmark looks like a good deal but he was outplayed and replaced by Swayman.

and Fred, who looks the best of the bunch, went AWOL during the playoffs.

so other than Raanta and Reimer, most of those UFA deals look like varying shades of shit for different reasons.

I would bet on Grubauer bouncing back at some point though, would be an interesting buy low option.

in terms of some of the remaining goalie UFA contracts last year (I included all that were > $1 m):

Halak - 1 x 3.0 m - .905 - .903 - (.002)
Holtby - 1 x 2.0 m - .892 - .913 - .021
Jones - 1 x 2.0 m - .896 - .900 - .004
Rittich - 1 x 1.25 m - .901 - .886 - (.015)
Rask - 1 x 1.0 m - .913 - .844 - (.069)

***lost starter's job in playoffs

my takeaway - goalies are indeed fucking assholes, controlled by voodoo from year to year. and, perhaps this is the salient point, paying UFA prices with term for them seems like a poor fucking investment.
Click to expand...

Thanks for all this leg work. I think it's definitely a fair takeaway but my initial post was a "well, fuck" at the thought of having to find two goalies and this just made me feel way more frightened 🙃
 
Wayward DP said:
obviously, the only exception to my newly discovered rule are the Vasi, Shesty types of goalies. but these are few and far between. dunno if there are even more than 3 or 4 at a given time and the list seems to change year-year...
Click to expand...
just further on this point, I feel like it wasn't that long ago that the 'cream of the crop' for goalies included Price, Hellebuyck, arguably Bob, Rinne, Gibson, etc.

from them, only Helly maybe still belongs in that convo. and you can argue Vasi was already here with the previous bunch.
 
Wayward DP said:
perhaps this is the salient point, paying UFA prices with term for them seems like a poor fucking investment.
Click to expand...

It's gambling, absolutely.

The problem is that unless you put an emphasis on draft & develop, you've got no fucking choice. Nobody trades a goalie who is under control and playing well, basically ever. So if you don't have one, your only real method of acquiring a goalie who has a reasonable chance at being above average over an extended period of time is to draft & develop them.

which brings me to this...since the 2006 draft

- We've spent a pick higher than a 4th, exactly once. Say hello to Joseph Woll.
- In the 16 drafts prior to that though we used 9 picks in the 3rd round or higher. We obviously had varying levels of success there, but we generated 2 stud starters with those picks (Potvin & Rask), a NHL backup (Tellqvist) a couple busty top prospects (Fichaud, Pogge) and then some goalies who were bad when we drafted them (.890 sv%'s in the CHL ffs) but I assume were eye testy at the time as was the way of the era.

If we don't prioritize the position at the draft (and live with the volatility of developing 18 yr old goalies), we are likely to have a never ending cycle of bargain bin hunting for a Jack, or overpaying for a piece of shit like Mrazek in free agency.
 
MindzEye said:
It's gambling, absolutely.

The problem is that unless you put an emphasis on draft & develop, you've got no fucking choice. Nobody trades a goalie who is under control and playing well, basically ever. So if you don't have one, your only real method of acquiring a goalie who has a reasonable chance at being above average over an extended period of time is to draft & develop them.

which brings me to this...since the 2006 draft

- We've spent a pick higher than a 4th, exactly once. Say hello to Joseph Woll.
- In the 16 drafts prior to that though we used 9 picks in the 3rd round or higher. We obviously had varying levels of success there, but we generated 2 stud starters with those picks (Potvin & Rask), a NHL backup (Tellqvist) a couple busty top prospects (Fichaud, Pogge) and then some goalies who were bad when we drafted them (.890 sv%'s in the CHL ffs) but I assume were eye testy at the time as was the way of the era.

If we don't prioritize the position at the draft (and live with the volatility of developing 18 yr old goalies), we are likely to have a never ending cycle of bargain bin hunting for a Jack, or overpaying for a piece of shit like Mrazek in free agency.
Click to expand...
I'm all for drafting more goalies! I think we have been trending this way the past couple years at least?

we did acquire Jack via trade and he's returned pretty tremendous value on that trade and his contract.

honestly I don't know the answer. goalies seem to be really difficult to evaluate and have lots of fluctuation in their performance. but there's certainly a compelling case to be made for trying to create and maintain a goalie pipeline so you always have internal competition...
 
Artnes said:
he was the scout JFJ leaned heavily on at the time of the deal. Button saw Raycroft bouncing back and convinced him with Rask's mandatory 2 year service it was the right call to make

At least Pogge is still playing
Click to expand...
Good call. Maybe time to give pogge a shot.
 
Gibsons big cap hit likely requires anh to take back some $$$. Maybe you can sell them on mrazek as they rebuild if you sweeten the pot a bit.

they did, after all, take back TOSKALOL once upon a time.
 
MindzEye said:
It's gambling, absolutely.

The problem is that unless you put an emphasis on draft & develop, you've got no fucking choice. Nobody trades a goalie who is under control and playing well, basically ever. So if you don't have one, your only real method of acquiring a goalie who has a reasonable chance at being above average over an extended period of time is to draft & develop them.

which brings me to this...since the 2006 draft

- We've spent a pick higher than a 4th, exactly once. Say hello to Joseph Woll.
- In the 16 drafts prior to that though we used 9 picks in the 3rd round or higher. We obviously had varying levels of success there, but we generated 2 stud starters with those picks (Potvin & Rask), a NHL backup (Tellqvist) a couple busty top prospects (Fichaud, Pogge) and then some goalies who were bad when we drafted them (.890 sv%'s in the CHL ffs) but I assume were eye testy at the time as was the way of the era.

If we don't prioritize the position at the draft (and live with the volatility of developing 18 yr old goalies), we are likely to have a never ending cycle of bargain bin hunting for a Jack, or overpaying for a piece of shit like Mrazek in free agency.
Click to expand...

think you kinda sold me the last time you laid out your argument for this. i'm in.
 
Preston said:
Price has been horrible for a long time, just came off a significant injury and has drug problems.

I'll take the guy who has been horrible for a long time but was the leagues top goalie in the years before that.

Or neither. I'll take neither.
Click to expand...
Neither works for me.

But we need to sign Jack somehow then.
 
Wayward DP said:
okay I'm gonna do some legwork.

2021 UFAs ---|--- Yrs/AAV ---|--- 2021 SV% --|-- 2022 SV% --|-- Change
Grubauer - 6 x 5.9 m - .922 - .889 - (.034)
Ullmark - 4 x 5 m - .917 - .917 - .000***
Mrazek - 3 x 3.8 m - .923 - .888 - (.035)
Driedger - 3 x 3.5 m - .927 - .899 - (.028)
Broken muffin man - 2 x 4.5 m - .895 - .922 - .027
Brossoit - 2 x 2.325 m - .918 - .895 - (.023)
Optimus - 2 x 2.25 m - .906 - .911 - .005
Raanta - 2 x 2 m - .905 - .912 - .007

the above are, far as I can tell, a complete list of goalies who signed multi-year UFA deals last year. four of them badly underperformed their previous season, Fred had a miraculous resurgence, and the remaining three delivered performances in line with the previous year.

so of the 8, 5 had significant variance from year to year, and two of the remaining three 'consistent' ones were Reimer and Raanta who were not really 'starters'.

Ullmark looks like a good deal but he was outplayed and replaced by Swayman.

and Fred, who looks the best of the bunch, went AWOL during the playoffs.

so other than Raanta and Reimer, most of those UFA deals look like varying shades of shit for different reasons.

I would bet on Grubauer bouncing back at some point though, would be an interesting buy low option.

in terms of some of the remaining goalie UFA contracts last year (I included all that were > $1 m):

Halak - 1 x 3.0 m - .905 - .903 - (.002)
Holtby - 1 x 2.0 m - .892 - .913 - .021
Jones - 1 x 2.0 m - .896 - .900 - .004
Rittich - 1 x 1.25 m - .901 - .886 - (.015)
Rask - 1 x 1.0 m - .913 - .844 - (.069)

***lost starter's job in playoffs

my takeaway - goalies are indeed fucking assholes, controlled by voodoo from year to year. and, perhaps this is the salient point, paying UFA prices with term for them seems like a poor fucking investment.
Click to expand...
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