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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

I don’t have a high opinion of them, but I’ve been pretty confident these guys are not going to risk manage their way to letting the best talent we’ve seen in decades walk as free agents in 2025. At ages 26 (Vladdy) and 27 (Bo). Surely no.
 
manny said:
I don’t have a high opinion of them, but I’ve been pretty confident these guys are not going to risk manage their way to letting the best talent we’ve seen in decades walk as free agents in 2025. At ages 26 (Vladdy) and 27 (Bo). Surely no.
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oh I fully expect us to lose one or both
 
MindzEye said:
You might want to consider watching different leagues then man. I hear that the contracts in the WNBA are downright reasonable, barely even a living wage in some markets
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Cmon , you might get 5 good years then its your Cabrera albatross for half a decade +
 
pretty sure there is a lot of analysis showing that those 'absurd' contracts to guys like Scherzer etc are actually team friendly and good value...
 
Wayward DP said:
pretty sure there is a lot of analysis showing that those 'absurd' contracts to guys like Scherzer etc are actually team friendly and good value...
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with the caveat being that you need to be giving star level contracts to star level talents for it to be wortwhile.

so Vladdy is definitely worth it. but I'd be a bit more cautious on Bo if it was my own money...
 
GEEMAN said:
Cmon , you might get 5 good years then its your Cabrera albatross for half a decade +
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The thing is, those 5 "good" years will produce a huge amount of surplus value, and will likely include 5-6+ war/150. That's worth way, way more than 27 million. The next 5 years on that deal aren't likely to be horrible either, you may have to shift him to 3B or 1B (which his bat plays at either) and he'll probably be a 3+ WAR/150 over those 5 years....and a 3 WAR corner IF is worth close to 27M on the open market. The last 3 years he might end up as an average DH or worse, and yeah, might be a 27 million dollar albatross.

But sign me up all day for risky contracts on studs rather than the "safe" 3-4 yr 20+ million dollar deals we seem to be comfortable with giving 30+ yr old mid rotation pitchers. Correa will make less than Ryu + Kikuchi combined next year, which do you want?
 
Wayward DP said:
with the caveat being that you need to be giving star level contracts to star level talents for it to be wortwhile.

so Vladdy is definitely worth it. but I'd be a bit more cautious on Bo if it was my own money...
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Yeah, Bo is a great player right now, but he's not the sort of guy I want to commit 300M to when he hits FA. Guerrero has more name to him, I think he's someone who would be really hard to let go.
 
Wayward DP said:
pretty sure there is a lot of analysis showing that those 'absurd' contracts to guys like Scherzer etc are actually team friendly and good value...
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Most people massively undervalue how much a 5-6 WAR season is worth. Even with injuries and covid shortened seasons, Correa has been worth 250M so far in his career according to fangraphs over 8 seasons (would be ~350M if he had stayed as healthy as he has the last 2 seasons and not had covid evaporate most of a season on top). I wouldn't bet against him being worth that again over the next 8, nevermind 13.
 
FWIW, i endorse the Correa contract. Elite SS who's skills should age well

Bo might need to move off SS a year ago, let alone 3 years from now, and his high chase rate and elite bat speed is not something that ages well as a rule
 
MindzEye said:
Most people massively undervalue how much a 5-6 WAR season is worth. Even with injuries and covid shortened seasons, Correa has been worth 250M so far in his career according to fangraphs over 8 seasons (would be ~350M if he had stayed as healthy as he has the last 2 seasons and not had covid evaporate most of a season on top). I wouldn't bet against him being worth that again over the next 8, nevermind 13.
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I mean, I would bet against anyone being worth that much over 13 seasons, just because injuries and aging and all that jazz.

But that being said, sometimes that's the only way you get those wins. Only so many avenues to bring in players, and there's also the hidden variable where 4 WAR > 2 WAR + 2 WAR, that's not always accounted for in some of these calculations.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
FWIW, i endorse the Correa contract. Elite SS who's skills should age well

Bo might need to move off SS a year ago, let alone 3 years from now, and his high chase rate and elite bat speed is not something that ages well as a rule
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Would be really nice if Bo could add even 1% to his BB rate, and keep the K rate under 20%. His contact skills are really good in that he doesn't actually strike out that much for someone who swings as much as he does, but he'd be a lot more valuable if he could push that OBP up more towards the .350 mark. Either that, or he needs to get back to being a league average SS defensively. If he can't improve this year, this has to be his last one at SS.
 
UWHabs said:
Would be really nice if Bo could add even 1% to his BB rate, and keep the K rate under 20%. His contact skills are really good in that he doesn't actually strike out that much for someone who swings as much as he does, but he'd be a lot more valuable if he could push that OBP up more towards the .350 mark. Either that, or he needs to get back to being a league average SS defensively. If he can't improve this year, this has to be his last one at SS.
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My concern long term is when his inevitable elite bat to ball skills take a hit, he cant keep up that bat speed forever.
 
leafman101 said:
It’s very hard to quantify the risk of 13 years though. It’s almost unknowable. Sweets spots are hard to find.
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I'll help then.

Here's mine:

mmmm-fruit-filling
 
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