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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

UWHabs said:
Would be really nice if Bo could add even 1% to his BB rate, and keep the K rate under 20%. His contact skills are really good in that he doesn't actually strike out that much for someone who swings as much as he does, but he'd be a lot more valuable if he could push that OBP up more towards the .350 mark. Either that, or he needs to get back to being a league average SS defensively. If he can't improve this year, this has to be his last one at SS.
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Bichette is only 24, so there is a decent chance that he refined his approach as he gets older. Trea Turner had a big jump in his BB rate in his age 25 season. I don’t think there’s any reason to believe Bichette has already peaked as a hitter or can’t round out his skill-set. Look at Teoscar. He wasn’t even a big leaguer at 24, and then he managed to improve his approach and cut back on Ks over his first few years. Bichette has a lot more natural talent and already shows a willingness to adapt (2-strike approach).
 
UWHabs said:
I mean, I would bet against anyone being worth that much over 13 seasons, just because injuries and aging and all that jazz.
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I mean, you could, but as mentioned, these deals on stars tend to deliver value.

-Bryce Harper has returned about 120 million in value over the first 4 years of his deal (would be ~140 if not covid shortened) and he just turned 30. Would you sign him to a 9/210 deal today? You would need a head injury not to.

- Machado, despite a rough 1st season with the Padres (2.6 WAR) has returned 130+ million in value so far (would be ~160 if not for covid). Would you sign him to 6/140 today? Again, of course you would.

- A-Rod's famous for signing 2 of them. The 1st one for 250 million returned 280 million in value....in 7 years before he opted out. He generated 30 million in surplus value in 7 years of a 10 yr deal. Then signed an obvious mistake contract (10/275) at 32 yrs old but still returned 140 million in value on that, and retired a year before it was done. In total, A-Rod's huge contracts turned out to be 16/422.5 and he returned ~420 million in value over those 16 seasons.


Honestly, I've gone through a bunch more of these (Betts, Trout, Cabrera, Arenado, Votto, Kershaw) and the major takeaway is that you're an idiot if you don't sign them. The only one I've found that are remotely cautionary are A-Rod Part 2 (don't sign 32 yr olds to these deals and you're fine) ,Stanton (injuries are a motherfucker), & Greinke (32 yr old pitchers are risky)

UWHabs said:
But that being said, sometimes that's the only way you get those wins. Only so many avenues to bring in players, and there's also the hidden variable where 4 WAR > 2 WAR + 2 WAR, that's not always accounted for in some of these calculations.
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Well that's the other thing. All of these scales treat every WAR as equal in a linear fashion, but it's a lot harder to had a 7 WAR player than a 3 WAR player, and that scarcity should change the math. Basically, there's so much money in MLB, that elite players are almost impossible to overpay (within reason). It's far more common to hurt yourself by not paying these guys (and losing them to another club for little or nothing) than it is to hurt yourself by paying these guys. We should have been all over trying to lock up Vlad, Bo, and now Manoah and we don't seem to be.
 
MindzEye said:
I mean, you could, but as mentioned, these deals on stars tend to deliver value.

-Bryce Harper has returned about 120 million in value over the first 4 years of his deal (would be ~140 if not covid shortened) and he just turned 30. Would you sign him to a 9/210 deal today? You would need a head injury not to.

- Machado, despite a rough 1st season with the Padres (2.6 WAR) has returned 130+ million in value so far (would be ~160 if not for covid). Would you sign him to 6/140 today? Again, of course you would.

- A-Rod's famous for signing 2 of them. The 1st one for 250 million returned 280 million in value....in 7 years before he opted out. He generated 30 million in surplus value in 7 years of a 10 yr deal. Then signed an obvious mistake contract (10/275) at 32 yrs old but still returned 140 million in value on that, and retired a year before it was done. In total, A-Rod's huge contracts turned out to be 16/422.5 and he returned ~420 million in value over those 16 seasons.


Honestly, I've gone through a bunch more of these (Betts, Trout, Cabrera, Arenado, Votto, Kershaw) and the major takeaway is that you're an idiot if you don't sign them. The only one I've found that are remotely cautionary are A-Rod Part 2 (don't sign 32 yr olds to these deals and you're fine) ,Stanton (injuries are a motherfucker), & Greinke (32 yr old pitchers are risky)



Well that's the other thing. All of these scales treat every WAR as equal in a linear fashion, but it's a lot harder to had a 7 WAR player than a 3 WAR player, and that scarcity should change the math. Basically, there's so much money in MLB, that elite players are almost impossible to overpay (within reason). It's far more common to hurt yourself by not paying these guys (and losing them to another club for little or nothing) than it is to hurt yourself by paying these guys. We should have been all over trying to lock up Vlad, Bo, and now Manoah and we don't seem to be.
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I think the only option now is to try to get them to sign 10+-year deals with opt-outs after 5 or 6. Take the risk that they turn into pumpkins, and give them the choice of opting out to hit free agency at 28, 29 or 30 for one more mega-deal. I can see either Vladdy or Bo agreeing to give up a couple years of FA for that security.

Of course, the right time to do any of this was two years ago.
 
MindzEye said:
I mean, you could, but as mentioned, these deals on stars tend to deliver value.

-Bryce Harper has returned about 120 million in value over the first 4 years of his deal (would be ~140 if not covid shortened) and he just turned 30. Would you sign him to a 9/210 deal today? You would need a head injury not to.

- Machado, despite a rough 1st season with the Padres (2.6 WAR) has returned 130+ million in value so far (would be ~160 if not for covid). Would you sign him to 6/140 today? Again, of course you would.

- A-Rod's famous for signing 2 of them. The 1st one for 250 million returned 280 million in value....in 7 years before he opted out. He generated 30 million in surplus value in 7 years of a 10 yr deal. Then signed an obvious mistake contract (10/275) at 32 yrs old but still returned 140 million in value on that, and retired a year before it was done. In total, A-Rod's huge contracts turned out to be 16/422.5 and he returned ~420 million in value over those 16 seasons.


Honestly, I've gone through a bunch more of these (Betts, Trout, Cabrera, Arenado, Votto, Kershaw) and the major takeaway is that you're an idiot if you don't sign them. The only one I've found that are remotely cautionary are A-Rod Part 2 (don't sign 32 yr olds to these deals and you're fine) ,Stanton (injuries are a motherfucker), & Greinke (32 yr old pitchers are risky)



Well that's the other thing. All of these scales treat every WAR as equal in a linear fashion, but it's a lot harder to had a 7 WAR player than a 3 WAR player, and that scarcity should change the math. Basically, there's so much money in MLB, that elite players are almost impossible to overpay (within reason). It's far more common to hurt yourself by not paying these guys (and losing them to another club for little or nothing) than it is to hurt yourself by paying these guys. We should have been all over trying to lock up Vlad, Bo, and now Manoah and we don't seem to be.
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I think a big factor too is the younger you get the deal, the better they look. Harper and Machado both were FA at like 26, so you're still getting some big years out of them. You are right that more of them worked out than I would have initially expected. Looking at the crazy deals out there, I wonder if Arenado made the wrong call opting into his deal - given how loony people are spending, I bet someone would have given him 10 years.

That's also where I think if you signed someone like Bichette to a 10 year deal today, that looks vastly different than locking him up to a 10 year deal in 3 years when he'd be a FA. Same with Vlad - like, I'd sign him to a 15 year today if I could since he's still super young. Bo is the sort of player you can pay into his early 30s, but I don't want to commit to his late 30s. I mean, it wouldn't shock me if he ends up with a long career and is productive in those years, but I don't want to commit to that that far ahead of time.
 
Unless they have better replacements they can get, I want to commit to the star talent at whatever the market bears.

I'm not worried about the Jays being able to pay their bills or turn a profit. Gimme another World Series.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Unless they have better replacements they can get, I want to commit to the star talent at whatever the market bears.

I'm not worried about the Jays being able to pay their bills or turn a profit. Gimme another World Series.
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you prolly need to find new owners and management first
 
I'm sort of ambivalent about these guys.

They go and make lots of splashes in free agency and get pretty good name guys. But then they don't get that final piece or two to really go for it, and so it's all for nothing. They trade Teo, who I thought was a great player throughout his time here frankly, but it's not a bad time to deal him, you just need to replace him with something better. They seem to be pretty good at rotating expensive and old guy out and replacing him with someone almost as good but much cheaper.

If memory serves, though, I think everything they ever do is through free agency. Can't recall any trades of major consequence, but I have a terrible memory for that stuff these days.

My only gripe is that they take the roster 95% of the way there, and then don't get that final 5% to give them a real shot at a title.
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
But then they don't get that final piece or two to really go for it, and so it's all for nothing.

My only gripe is that they take the roster 95% of the way there, and then don't get that final 5% to give them a real shot at a title.
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This is just straight-up Mensa Fi propaganda. Every team in major league baseball could say the same thing, except for the two teams that make it to the World Series.

Nobody has to (or should) spend over the luxury cap threshold either.
 
axlsalinger said:
This is just straight-up Mensa Fi propaganda. Every team in major league baseball could say the same thing, except for the two teams that make it to the World Series.

Nobody has to (or should) spend over the luxury cap threshold either.
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this is an opinion supported by a wide variety of facts, comments, and real world events. i.e. evidence.

happy to rehash if needed...
 
Wayward DP said:
this is an opinion supported by a wide variety of facts, comments, and real world events. i.e. evidence.

happy to rehash if needed...
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My take is the front office is more trying to build a team that's competitive every year without blowing their wad, and the plan will be to hope for a lucky October run. Rather than LAD/NYM/SD/ATL and just try to bash in and go over the top for any marginal gains.
 
UWHabs said:
My take is the front office is more trying to build a team that's competitive every year without blowing their wad, and the plan will be to hope for a lucky October run. Rather than LAD/NYM/SD/ATL and just try to bash in and go over the top for any marginal gains.
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Only SD made if past the 2nd round last year. If only these teams had been willing to go that extra 5%!!!!!
 
Wayward DP said:
there is a difference between trying and failing, and not even trying at all.
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great analysis .. the team that a. made the playoffs, b. missed the playoffs by one game, and c. made the playoffs, in the last 3 years was "not even trying at all".

Brought to you by the same people who think the Jays went from one of the oldest cores in MLB to one of the youngest cores in MLB "accidentally" because they were actually trying to win then, but not now.
 
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