OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

[MindzEye]

I really thought JR was setup to be better than Vlad SR... disappoint

I think we've fucked him up more than anything else. The one time he was allowed to let his nuts hang this year he won the HR derby. I know that smashing BP fastballs isn't remotely the same thing as hitting MLB pitching, but there's clearly nothing wrong with the tools, just how they're being applied.

 

[manny]

Career offensive year at age 27 next year IMO. I still never liked the trade the day it was announced. And that career year will happen in a year Moreno is an all-star IMO.

Possible, but it’s also possible that his best offensive seasons are behind him. He wouldn’t be the first player that doesn’t translate good offensive numbers in the minors to MLB. At this point, Varsho’s 25 year old season, where his bat was slightly above league average, is the outlier.

For some context, Vladdy is three years younger than Varsho.

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah, the only way the Varsho trade is worth it is if he's in CF and continues providing god tier CF nerdies there. The stick probably is what it is, in the 95-105wRC+ range most years probably but the glove is excellent but completely fucking wasted in LF.

 

[UWHabs]

Yeah, the only way the Varsho trade is worth it is if he's in CF and continues providing god tier CF nerdies there. The stick probably is what it is, in the 95-105wRC+ range most years probably but the glove is excellent but completely fucking wasted in LF.

As a CF, he can basically be prime Kiermaier - crazy good glove, bat varies, giving you basically 3-6 war each year. If he can be healthy, which Kiermaier never was, that definitely has value.

 

[MindzEye]

Possible, but it’s also possible that his best offensive seasons are behind him. He wouldn’t be the first player that doesn’t translate good offensive numbers in the minors to MLB. At this point, Varsho’s 25 year old season, where his bat was slightly above league average, is the outlier.

For some context, Vladdy is three years younger than Varsho.

Yeah, I don't see upside in Varsho's stick (surprise fucking surprise eh?)

He just doesn't make good consistent contact. 87.8mph average exit velo is pretty fucking tepid, it's not like he's lacing balls around the park and while the power is okay it's just okay and a lot of the power is based on his approach. He hits a lot of flyballs (47% this season) and doesn't really draw many walks. Of the 77 guys in MLB who hit 20 or more HR this season, he was 57th among them in BB%.

So he basically does one thing at the plate, hits medium distance flyballs and hopes to pull enough of them to hit 20+ dingers. Career .298 obp, career .229 BA.

He's Randall Grichuk if Grichuk was an elite OF glove. Not surprising that his existence gives Shapiro wood.

 

[UWHabs]

Yeah, I don't see upside in Varsho's stick (surprise fucking surprise eh?)

He just doesn't make good consistent contact. 87.8mph average exit velo is pretty fucking tepid, it's not like he's lacing balls around the park and while the power is okay it's just okay and a lot of the power is based on his approach. He hits a lot of flyballs (47% this season) and doesn't really draw many walks. Of the 77 guys in MLB who hit 20 or more HR this season, he was 57th among them in BB%.

So he basically does one thing at the plate, hits medium distance flyballs and hopes to pull enough of them to hit 20+ dingers. Career .298 obp, career .229 BA.

He's Randall Grichuk if Grichuk was an elite OF glove. Not surprising that his existence gives Shapiro wood.

I mean, last year he was a 107 wRC+, so that's an above average stick. But yeah, when you dig in, unless if he can find a way to change his batting profile, that might be the high point.

He has speed - he's someone who would benefit from hitting the ball on the ground more, trying to beat out hits. Although really looking at his profile, it's the popups that kill him. Turn them in anything else - grounds out for infield hits, fly balls for HRs, line drives for XBH, and that helps him.

But even last year looks like some of his xwOBA numbers actually showed him being closer to this year's bat than what he actually did, so yeah, sadly looks like the team bought high. I know at the time people saw him heavily shifted and thought he would benefit from the new restrictions, but that doesn't work when you just fly out or pop out to the pull side.

 

[zeke]

Varsho’s 25 year old season, where his bat was slightly above league average, is the outlier.

22 (AA): 452pa, 159wrc+
23 (MLB): 115pa, 76wrc+
24 (AAA): 87pa, 161wrc+
24 (MLB): 315pa, 100wrc+
25 (MLB): 592pa, 107wrc+
26 (MLB): 581pa, 85wrc+

this year is the clear and glaring outlier.

 

[manny]

We also have to see how his defence plays as a full time CF. Until now he’s always been the second best CF on his team and racked up most of those godly defensive stats in the corner.

Also a player’s defensive peak is around age 26, so Varsho may already be on the downslope or approaching it. Kiermaier is the rare exception, and genuinely one of the all time great defensive CF.

 

[MindzEye]

I mean, last year he was a 107 wRC+, so that's an above average stick.

He was, but the underlying numbers on how he got there don't really look replicable. His pull rate and hard contact rate on FB's went way up.

The league has figured out something on him. His wRC+ against four seamers is the same as 2022, but he's cratered against every other pitch type other than curves.

 

[manny]

22 (AA): 452pa, 159wrc+
23 (MLB): 115pa, 76wrc+
24 (AAA): 87pa, 161wrc+
24 (MLB): 315pa, 100wrc+
25 (MLB): 592pa, 107wrc+
26 (MLB): 581pa, 85wrc+

this year is the clear and glaring outlier.

That 315PA 100wrc+ season is doing a lot of lifting in your analysis. Same with the 87PA he had in the PCL that year, which is basically meaningless IMO.

He had a decent, not great, offensive season for Arizona in 2022 with some underlying red flags. That’s really all there is to hang your hat on at this point. He could take a step forward next year but that’s true of almost anyone.

 

[zeke]

Varsho Career Defense

as CF: 1152.2inn, +16.7 uzr/150, +26.9 drs/150
as COF: 1541.1inn, +18.7 uzr/150, +28.0 drs/150

 

[MindzEye]

22 (AA): 452pa, 159wrc+
23 (MLB): 115pa, 76wrc+
24 (AAA): 87pa, 161wrc+
24 (MLB): 315pa, 100wrc+
25 (MLB): 592pa, 107wrc+
26 (MLB): 581pa, 85wrc+

this year is the clear and glaring outlier.

I mean, that's 700 PA of well below average hitting. Calling 700 PA the outlier and the other 900 PA the guy would be a bold take that probably turns out wrong.

Again, there's a whole lot of stuff wrong in his batted ball profile if you're expecting more than 95-100 wRC+ plus in a normal season from him.

 

[Montana]

 

[zeke]

That 315PA 100wrc+ season is doing a lot of lifting in your analysis. Same with the 87PA he had in the PCL. Basically meaningless.

He had a decent, not great, offensive season for Arizona in 2022 with some underlying red flags. That’s really all there is to hang your hat on at this point. He could take a step forward next year but that’s true of almost anyone.

so after throwing out his 2022 as an outlier, you are now also throwing out his 2021 as an outlier.

 

[MindzEye]

Varsho Career Defense

as CF: 1152.2inn, +16.7 uzr/150, +26.9 drs/150
as COF: 1541.1inn, +18.7 uzr/150, +28.0 drs/150

Randal Grichuk with a great glove.

No arguments there.

 

[MindzEye]

We also have to see how his defence plays as a full time CF.

Nah, was legit great in CF this year. My only question with him defensively is how long his body type holds up in CF, not how good he can be there while it does.

 

[manny]

Varsho Career Defense

as CF: 1152.2inn, +16.7 uzr/150, +26.9 drs/150
as COF: 1541.1inn, +18.7 uzr/150, +28.0 drs/150

So yeah, that’s about 60% of his time in the corner where he looks slightly better. Let’s see how it plays out in a full year in CF. Probably still very good, for sure.

 

[manny]

Randal Grichuk with a great glove.

No arguments there.

Or Brett Gardner without the on base skills.

 

[zeke]

Again, there's a whole lot of stuff wrong in his batted ball profile if you're expecting more than 95-100 wRC+ plus in a normal season from him.

I mean you're making stuff up. His bb/k rates for his career are solid and sustainable. His ISOp is solid and sustainable. his linedrive/groundball/flyball rates are all normal. His wOBA and xwOBA are pretty much identical for his career.

The one weird looking number on his stats profile is his weirdly low .266babip.

 

[manny]

Nah, was legit great in CF this year. My only question with him defensively is how long his body type holds up in CF, not how good he can be there while it does.

Not denying it, but that’s kind of the same thing. He needs to stick full time (and he’s probably on the downside of his defensive peak). I don’t blame him for playing behind Kiermaier, but I also won’t pretend you can transpose those part time defensive numbers directly into a full season.