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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

zeke said:
so after throwing out his 2022 as an outlier, you are now also throwing out his 2021 as an outlier.
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Nope. 2021 was not even close to a full year. I admit that he had a league average bat in about half a season (Although yeah, I put zero stock in a gaudy line in 70PA in the PCL

My point is you have to rely a lot on that 300PA line from 2021 to conclude that 2023 is the “clear and glaring” outlier. And of course you have to ignore 2020 a well. Just pointing out the inconsistency there.

As has been said he’s got about 900PA of roughly league average numbers spread across two seasons and about 700PA of unplayable garbage spread across two others.
 
MindzEye said:
I think we've fucked him up more than anything else. The one time he was allowed to let his nuts hang this year he won the HR derby. I know that smashing BP fastballs isn't remotely the same thing as hitting MLB pitching, but there's clearly nothing wrong with the tools, just how they're being applied.
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As much as I loathe Shatkins, I’m not sure I want to pin Junior’s issues on them. It’s between him and the pitcher.
 
CH1 said:
As much as I loathe Shatkins, I’m not sure I want to pin Junior’s issues on them. It’s between him and the pitcher.
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Agree. I actually think they’re pretty hands off with those guys in some ways. For example, Bichette has always had a very unconventional approach and they never messed with it.

Also Vlad has the same hitting coach now that he did in 2021. Not sure why he was able to consistently put the ball in the air that year with force and hasn’t really been able to otherwise.
 
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manny said:
Nope. 2021 was not even close to a full year. I admit that he had a league average bat in about half a season (Although yeah, I put zero stock in a gaudy line in 70PA in the PCL

My point is you have to rely a lot on that 300PA line from 2021 to conclude that 2023 is the “clear and glaring” outlier. And of course you have to ignore 2020 a well. Just pointing out the inconsistency there.

As has been said he’s got about 900PA of roughly league average numbers spread across two seasons and about 700PA of unplayable garbage spread across two others.
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you realize that wRC+ adjusts for the PCL environment right? and that it was right in line with his AA line?

let's be clear - you are literally ignoring 2 full seasons in order to call last year an outlier.
 
CH1 said:
As much as I loathe Shatkins, I’m not sure I want to pin Junior’s issues on them. It’s between him and the pitcher.
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It is at the end of the day, but I think the hitting coach and organization can play a big role in approach, preparation, professionalism, etc. When you see declines in productivity more or less across the board (aside from the one guy who has always told the org to fuck off when it comes to his approach at the plate) there's probably something deeper going on.
 
MindzEye said:
I'm really not.


View attachment 17890

He's had one season where he figured out how to not hit soft FB's to the opposite field.



That's not weird at all for a guy who hits a lot of flyballs.
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so this year was a career high (by far) in IFFB%, career low in hr/fb, career low in hard%. also, not pictured, a career high (by far) in FB%.
 
zeke said:
you realize that wRC+ adjusts for the PCL environment right? and that it was right in line with his AA line?

let's be clear - you are literally ignoring 2 full seasons in order to call last year an outlier.
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PCL stats aren’t real. Especially in small sample sizes, and especially for fly ball hitters. They’ve caused people to fall in live with some pretty bad playersz

I’m doing the same thing you’re doing, without the heavy reliance on minor league stats. And while I think last year might be the outlier, although we have to see, you concluded that this year is the “clear and glaring” outlier. Doesn’t add up.
 
None of this stuff even matters.

If we have a manager whose specialty is self-sabotage, we’re not winning shit. I can live with Shatkins if they must stay, but they have to get rid of this moron.
 
manny said:
PCL stats aren’t real. Especially in small sample sizes, and especially for fly ball hitters. They’ve caused people to fall in live with some pretty bad playersz

I’m doing the same thing you’re doing, without the heavy reliance on minor league stats. And while I think last year might be the outlier, although we have to see, you concluded that this year is the “clear and glaring” outlier. Doesn’t add up.
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I'm looking at all the stats. You're removing his previous 2 years as outliers.. that's not the same thing.
 
zeke said:
so this year was a career high (by far) in IFFB%, career low in hr/fb, career low in hard%. also, not pictured, a career high (by far) in FB%.
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I've never claimed that 85 wRC+ is his level.

But I think him repeating his batted ball numbers of his 107 wRC+ season is about as likely as him repeating his batted ball numbers from this year. I think both show the bottom and top end of the range of expected outcomes from him.

The stick is fine, not good but fine if he remains elite in centre field for 3 or more seasons. It's still a trade that's likely to look terrible in the end, but it's not the end of the world for a team that fancies itself as a contender to get GG level CF defence. As mentioned, my question is whether a stocky 5'8 207 pound guy holds up in CF long term.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
None of this stuff even matters.

If we have a manager whose specialty is self-sabotage, we’re not winning shit. I can live with Shatkins if they must stay, but they have to get rid of this moron.
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He's clearly operating off a game plan built by the front office.

I dont think he's good, and he can go, but if he's just replaced by another "collaborator" then i dont know what the difference is.

There is also a very real possibility that if they fire Schneider they promote Mattingly from within, and he might be waaaayyyyyy worse.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
He's clearly operating off a game plan built by the front office.

I dont think he's good, and he can go, but if he's just replaced by another "collaborator" then i dont know what the difference is.

There is also a very real possibility that if they fire Schneider they promote Mattingly from within, and he might be waaaayyyyyy worse.
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I mean they should all be fired out of a cannon but some heads rolling is better than none. I have a hard time believing he’s a pure puppet.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I mean they should all be fired out of a cannon but some heads rolling is better than none. I have a hard time believing he’s a pure puppet.
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He called the game plan organizational in the presser, and this FO has long used terms like collaboration when describing how decisions are made.

Their first hire was a no name 50 year old who would have never got a gig elsewhere. They clearly have alot of influence over in game planning. I dont think they like call down to tell him who to PH or what RP to go to, but i 100% believe they are responsible for the Berrios to Kikuchi plan and installing whatever the fuck this hitting approach is.
 
Schenieder is a problem, probably, but if he's dismissed ( and i bet he isnt) he'll be a sacrificial lamb

Atkins, and probably Shapiro are the real problems here, and i have doubts that they have been humbled by this. I can almost predict word for word what Atkins is going to say tomorrow a mishmash of nonsense hyping up the opportunities and alternatives and flexibility going into the offseason while working hard on getting better internally, hyping up prospects that arent actually very good and thanking Rogers for their unwavering support while offering no clarity on payroll next season
 
Hasn’t Atkins already had three managers? I don’t see how he can use Schneider as a sacrificial lamb when he did the same thing to his hand picked guy, Montoyo, just last year.
 
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