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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MyNameIsJonas said:
He's clearly operating off a game plan built by the front office.

I dont think he's good, and he can go, but if he's just replaced by another "collaborator" then i dont know what the difference is.

There is also a very real possibility that if they fire Schneider they promote Mattingly from within, and he might be waaaayyyyyy worse.
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What kind of manager would Mattingly be here? Have trouble believing he’s take marching orders the same way Schneider does, but if his instincts are worse than it’s an overall downgrade.
 
zeke said:
I'm looking at all the stats. You're removing his previous 2 years as outliers.. that's not the same thing.
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I’m looking at all the same numbers. We just don’t agree about which are the more relevant and which are the likely outliers (with your degree of confidence much higher.)

Anyway, you make some good points. I’m also hopeful he will bounce back but less optimistic.
 
manny said:
What kind of manager would Mattingly be here? Have trouble believing he’s take marching orders the same way Schneider does, but if his instincts are worse than it’s an overall downgrade.
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he was quoted as saying we dont have the team to win via the HR and i suspect he;s in favor of this all fields approach bullshit
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
He called the game plan organizational in the presser, and this FO has long used terms like collaboration when describing how decisions are made.
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I mean I'm sorry to have to explain this to people who don't understand baseball like LOF and Jonas, but this is how it works now for most organizations in MLB, though possibly not for the dumbest teams in the league like Kansas City and Colorado.

Analytics give smart teams an advantage over a 162-game season, full stop. In a 1 or 2 game sample, perhaps not.
 
axlsalinger said:
I mean I'm sorry to have to explain this to people who don't understand baseball like LOF and Jonas, but this is how it works now for most organizations in MLB, though possibly not for the dumbest teams in the league like Kansas Cityand Colorado.

Analytics give smart teams an advantage over a 162-game season. In a 1 or 2 game sample, perhaps not.
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Not all teams that have an analytics department are good at it.

Analytics told them to make the two pitching changes in the last 2 playoffs
Analytics told them to use this hitting approach
Analytics seem to be a driving force to micro managing the manager
I assume they had an analytics team tell them how to handle the Bass and Manoah situations

This shouldnt be a war on analytics it should be a war on guys who suck at running them, and hide behind them when they fail.
 
Preston said:
Sometimes you do though. If you feel he is overhyped you probably should trade him before people figure that bit out. And maybe that's how Shatkins felt about him. Sounds like they were wrong, so not defending them, but in some cases I don't hate the idea of rushing to trade a prospect that you feel has value that exceeds his potential.
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Even if that’s the case, you should be able to do much better than Varsho as a return
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
Not all teams that have an analytics department are good at it.

Analytics told them to make the two pitching changes in the last 2 playoffs
Analytics told them to use this hitting approach
Analytics seem to be a driving force to micro managing the manager
I assume they had an analytics team tell them how to handle the Bass and Manoah situations

This shouldnt be a war on analytics it should be a war on guys who suck at running them, and hide behind them when they fail.
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I think a management team that made the playoffs 3 out of 4 years despite not being able to tie their own shoelaces (at least according to the many geniuses at Mensa Ice) is probably using analytics just fine in large sample sizes like the regular season.
 
I'm not sure it's fait to give Varsho, or anybody for that matter, too much flak as this might of been a team-wide thing.

....something was up, obviously, and when Chapman, in a contract year, sucks instead of playing for the money, when all the numbers point to badness we just might find out the team was actually screwed by the khakis.
 
axlsalinger said:
I think a management team that made the playoffs 3 out of 4 years despite not being able to tie their own shoelaces (at least according to the many geniuses at Mensa Ice) is probably using analytics just fine in large sample sizes like the regular season.
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It’s OK to raise your expectations though.

There’s a strong correlation in baseball between payroll and making the playoffs. Just because the Mets and Angels screw it up all the time doesn’t mean we should expect any less of our teams.

12/30 teams make the playoffs every year, and the Jays are a now top-5 payroll, luxury tax team. Backing into the last wildcard and getting swept is a failure. But that’s all this regime has ever done. And I think they could have run old timey analytics-blind managers out there every year and done just as well.

They inherited a team that could get them deeper and their first decision of substance was to dismantle it without getting anything at all in return. 8 years later they are worse off than they started, despite an extra $100M/yr from ownership.

The team building philosophy is a failure from the ground up. Most of the value they’ve added has been in long term FA deals. Anyone can do that. Their only special skill seems to be trading their own bad draft picks before the prospect flames out.

We should expect more.
 
axlsalinger said:
I think a management team that made the playoffs 3 out of 4 years despite not being able to tie their own shoelaces (at least according to the many geniuses at Mensa Ice) is probably using analytics just fine in large sample sizes like the regular season.
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Making fun of people for expecting more than 89 regular season wins and 1 playoff run scored in a 2 game sweep for 251 million is a hell of a take.
 
They replaced a Cy young winner with Gausman, they lost Stripling and picked up Bassit, put together an elite pitching staff so they can do something right.
Here's to them possibly getting out of their own way.
 
* 2023: #5 win% AL (#6 rdiff), #9 win% MLB (#13 rdiff), 0-2 WC
* 2022: #4 win% AL (#3 rdiff), #8 win% MLB (#7 rdiff), 0-2 WC
* 2021: #6 win% AL (#3 rdiff), #9 win% MLB (#5 rdiff), missed playoffs
* 2020: #7 win% AL (#8 rdiff), #11 win% MLB (#17 rdiff), 0-2 WC
* 2019: #12 win% AL (#10 rdiff), #26 win% MLB (#21 rdiff), missed playoffs
* 2018: #10 win% AL (#11 rdiff), #22 win% MLB (#23 rdiff), missed playoffs
* 2017: #11 win% AL (#12 rdiff), #19 win% MLB (#22 rdiff), missed playoffs
* 2016: #5 win% AL (#3 rdiff), #8 win% MLB (#5 rdiff), 3-0 WC, 1-4 ALCS
* 2015: #2 win% AL (#1 rdiff), #5 win% MLB (#1 rdiff), 3-2 WC, 2-4 ALCS
 
Could it be the dumbest pull in MLB playoffs history?

I mean, you have bad pulls all the time in the 6th, 7th, whatever, when a pitcher is in trouble, their pitch count is not terrible, and you decide to go to the pen and the reliever can't shut the door. Okay. But 47 pitches in the 4th inning with a man on first and otherwise absolutely dominating? I'd love for someone to show me a worse pull than this one. Dumbest Jays managerial decision I've ever seen, that's for sure. And he was DYING to do it, just dying.
 
I remember Madden pulling Hendricks(?) early in game 7 vs Cleveland in favour of Lester seemed batshit to me at the time. He was lucky the Cubs rallied to win it or it would be remembered as one of the all time blunders I think.
 
The most famous example was the Rays pulling Blake Snell in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. There's always a reason for these decisions, but it doesn't always work. In fact it goes sideways a lot, but there are also many many examples of leaving starters in one batter too long as well.

www.espn.com

Snell 'disappointed, upset' by Cash's early hook

Blake Snell, who cruised through five shutout innings against the Dodgers, said he was "disappointed and upset" that he was pulled in the sixth inning of Tuesday night's Series-clinching loss.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

"I regret the decision because it didn't work out," Cash said after the Los Angeles Dodgers wrapped up their seventh World Series title with a 3-1 win. "But you know, I feel like the thought process was right. ... If we had to do it over again, I would have the utmost confidence in Nick Anderson to get through that inning."

With the Rays leading 1-0, Snell was throwing arguably his best game of the season. He had struck out nine Dodgers hitters while giving up two hits.

To the dismay of many, Snell's second hit allowed -- to No. 9 hitter Austin Barnes, with one out in the sixth -- brought Cash to the mound. Cash opted for Anderson, who promptly gave up a double, a game-tying wild pitch and an RBI groundout, putting the Rays behind in the game for the first time, 2-1.

"I am definitely disappointed and upset," Snell said. "I just want the ball. I felt good. I did everything I could to prove my case to stay out there, and then for us to lose, it sucks. I want to win, and I want to win the World Series, and for us to lose, it just sucks.

"I am not going to question him. He's a helluva manager, so I am not going to question him. And I can only look forward to what I am going to accomplish this offseason. But we came up short, and the only thing I can focus on is what I can be better at next year."

Cash said the decision to pull Snell was made because leadoff hitter Mookie Betts was coming up again, and Cash wanted to avoid having Snell go through the lineup a third time. The next three hitters Snell was due to face -- Betts, Corey Seager and Justin Turner -- were 0-for-6 with six strikeouts against him Tuesday.

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts acknowledged that he was glad Snell was pulled, adding that Betts even looked over at him and smiled.

"I was pretty happy because he was dominating us, and we just weren't seeing him," Roberts said. "We were all kind of excited that Snell was out of the game."

Betts said Snell's removal from the game brought about a "sigh of relief" from the team, and Seager said it "uplifted" the offense.
 
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