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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

CH1 said:
should have kept Freddy
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Nah, he would have continued to suck here imo. It's pretty clear that he checked out mentally in Toronto for whatever reason, stopped putting the work in, etc. Dude was playing at 250 here and was progressively getting bigger every year. Signs in Carolina and immediately finds the ability to lose 20 pounds. The weight gain and phantom injury at the end of the season was the end of his time here.
 
MindzEye said:
and all strengths:

View attachment 12998
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By far the best 18 game stretch since his last elite season. Sucks that it ended that way but I can't pretend there weren't signs of a bounce-back for the first time ever. Hope he's healthy and off the meth because I do think he's the Leafs best shot for competent goaltending next year. Samsonov is a pure project with SOME upside to be their goalie of the future if they can help him, but it's always gonna be against the odds with his track record in the show.
 
Murray .906 last year .899 last 3yrs
Samsonov .896 last year .902 last 3yrs

I'd assume they trudge along at a similar level....which would give us about the same level of goaltending we got last year overall.

But with both having some upside to break out at a better level than that.
 
Preston said:
By far the best 18 game stretch since his last elite season. Sucks that it ended that way but I can't pretend there weren't signs of a bounce-back for the first time ever. Hope he's healthy and off the meth because I do think he's the Leafs best shot for competent goaltending next year. Samsonov is a pure project with SOME upside to be their goalie of the future if they can help him, but it's always gonna be against the odds with his track record in the show.
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Murray is probably a health (physical and mental) gamble, while Samsonov is likely a technical project/gamble (never really transitioned properly to NA hockey but the tools are obvious).

I don't think anyone needs to teach Matt Murray how to stop pucks at a high level though, he can clearly do it still. Can he do it for 40-50 games though? Dunno.
 
I would imagine the odds of a bad 25 year old goalie breaking out are higher than the odds of a bad 28 year old goalie breaking out.

I think Murray is a technical mess too btw. The idea that he has been good when healthy isn't accurate.
 
leafman101 said:
I would imagine the odds of a bad 25 year old goalie breaking out are higher than the odds of a bad 28 year old goalie breaking out.

I think Murray is a technical mess too btw. The idea that he has been good when healthy isn't accurate.
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I think that's a mischaracterization of Murray though. He's obviously not a "bad goalie" per se, he's been a stud at the NHL level before and for an extended period of time. That multi season run wasn't a fluke. The odds of someone who has done it before doing it again are generally going to be way higher than the odds of someone who has never done it, doing it.
 
leafman101 said:
I would imagine the odds of a bad 25 year old goalie breaking out are higher than the odds of a bad 28 year old goalie breaking out.

I think Murray is a technical mess too btw. The idea that he has been good when healthy isn't accurate.
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There is some reason to believe Murray was breaking out a bit last year.
 
Im putting some faith in Sanford and Elkin identifying the issues with both and making the adjustments needed
 
I mean out of Murray's 7 seasons I would argue that only 2 have been shit. He was absolutely shit in 19-20 and 20-21 and maybe that's the new normal. But I wouldn't say the odds are necessarily terrible that he bounces back especially when he showed legit signs of it last year.
 
leafman101 said:
Last 3 years:
Mrazek: .903, 1.74 GSAx, 0.07 dfsv%
Samsonov: .903, -12.9, -0.53
Murray: .900, -20.3, -0.76

I mean the reality is that is the most likely, and Leafy outcome.
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the only thing i might add to that is that for whatever reason, whether its tactics or scorekeeping, carolina seems to consistently goose their goalies' save percentages.
 
Do think there's definitely some revisionist history about how bad Campbell was January on. People are just ignoring that for some reason.

I think we'll weather the storm in the regular season even if Murray and Samsonov aren't great but (sorry to harp on it), you should've been able to get a better deal on Murray to leave us more room elsewhere.
 
I mean when was the last time Samsonov had an 18 game heater stretch at .920? It's possible that he has never done that tbh. They both can easily be shit but I have to say that if one isn't, my money is on Murray .
 
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