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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

Preston said:
That's what we're here for yeah!
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That's what we're here for, but you have to put yourself in Dubie's position.

Hope for 5 years of true top 6 output (and health) from Robertson, or take Kane and his pretty much guaranteed 100 points on Matty's wing and try to extend him on a more expensive version of Gio's contract while he's here? I don't think Dubie has the luxury of sitting back and banking on Robertson panning out 3 years from now, which Dubie may not be there to see.

There's far more certainty in the Kane addition than the Robertson retention, so if Dubie wants to act on reasonable likelihoods and outcomes, there's really only one choice if that trade is on the table.
 
MindzEye said:
ehhh....Robertson is an A prospect. Not an A+ like Powers, but if we just take a standard top 100 list like this one:

thehockeywriters.com

The NHL's Top 100 Prospects - Midseason Update - The Hockey Writers Editor's Choice Latest News, Analysis & More

Every team has articles ranking their top prospects. But how do they all compare together? This list takes a look at the top-100 prospects.
thehockeywriters.com thehockeywriters.com

There's a bunch of forwards in that top 15 that if you swapped out Robertson's performance for theirs last season, they would move up the draft rankings and not down.
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Uh, who is this Barrachini dude?
 
MindzEye said:
ehhh....Robertson is an A prospect. Not an A+ like Powers, but if we just take a standard top 100 list like this one:

thehockeywriters.com

The NHL's Top 100 Prospects - Midseason Update - The Hockey Writers Editor's Choice Latest News, Analysis & More

Every team has articles ranking their top prospects. But how do they all compare together? This list takes a look at the top-100 prospects.
thehockeywriters.com thehockeywriters.com

There's a bunch of forwards in that top 15 that if you swapped out Robertson's performance for theirs last season, they would move up the draft rankings and not down.
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I don't mind trading an A prospect like him for one year of Kane. But it would really suck to see him blossom into that 1st line LW that this team could very much fucking use right now for the next several years. It's a very real scenario that they make the trade and it ends up biting them. But perhaps worth the risk. I don't know. It isn't a black or white, no brainer decision. Arguably their biggest issue these past few years has been the lack of ELC talent on the roster. Trading potentially their best one could hurt. I very much disagree with the "fuck it, go balls deep" idea that some may have for baseball or basketball. This is a very different sport.
 
Wayward DP said:
Kane helps the top-6 for one season.

Robertson potentially helps the top-6 for the next five years, at a relative discount. Given our top-heavy structure, we need to draft and develop guys like that to have a hope in hell of succeeding. And punting them when we do for a rental is not how I would manage those assets.
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The next five years? if the Leafs lose in the first round next year our heads will explode.
 
Kane's salary is only $6.9 mill this year too, and $4 mill was signing bonus. So double retention wouldn't be that expensive. Especially at the deadline.
 
Fwiw, just to support the point above, here's age, position & level comparables higher on that list

Rank 50 - Robertson: AHL (.57gpg, 1.00pp) "It somehow already feels like we’ve been hearing this kid’s name for YEARS." "it seems like 2022-23 is the year he needs to take that next step."
Rank 33 - Alex Turcotte: AHL (.22gpg, .67ppg) "Part of the embarrassment of riches the Kings have going at center ice, Alex Turcotte transitioned perfectly to professional hockey"
Rank 29 - Jakob Pelletier: AHL (.41gpg, .94ppg) "The 21-year-old had a strong rookie season in the AHL", "this is a prospect that could put up points in the NHL right now"
Rank 25 - Dylan Holloway: AHL ( .24gpg, .67ppg) "he produced extremely well with 22 points in 33 games with the Bakersfield Condors in the AHL"
Rank 23 - Jonatan Berggren: AHL (.3gpg, .91ppg, + 1.5yrs ) "In his first season in North America, Jonatan Berggren broke the rookie scoring record for the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL" "The 33rd pick of the 2018 draft enters the 2022-23 season with his eyes set on a roster spot in Detroit."
Rank 20 - Lukas Reichel: AHL (.38gpg, 1.02ppg) In the early days of the Blackhawks’ rebuild, he shines as one of their most promising prospects.
Rank 18 - JJ Peterka: AHL (.4gpg, .97ppg) Logging an insane 28 goals and 68 points in 70 games, he showed everyone that he will be a force to be reckoned with when he hits his prime in the NHL.
Rank 13 - Cole Perfetti: AHL (.4ppg, .88ppg) "Perfetti’s high-end playmaking abilities with speed and skill to burn continues to amaze me" , "He’s played extremely well at the pro level with 41 points in 49 games with the Manitoba Moose in the AHL"
Rank 11 - Alexander Holtz: AHL (.5gpg, .98ppg) "Alexander Holtz certainly got New Jersey Devils fans excited last season." "The seventh pick of the 2020 draft could be on the verge of a breakout season in 2022-23."
Rank 7 - Marco Rossi: AHL (.29gpg, .84ppg) He had a strong rookie season with the Iowa Wild in the AHL, posting 53 points in 63 games.


All roughly the same age (some are from the 2020 draft class that Robertson was his mum hanging on for one more set of contractions away from being part of) and Robertson's production matches or betters all of them. But only Robertson needs to take that next step this year, only Robertson doesn't get jerked off for how good he was in the AHL.

If Robertson isn't an "A" prospect, then I struggle to see anyone on that list being one.

 
Preston said:
I don't mind trading an A prospect like him for one year of Kane. But it would really suck to see him blossom into that 1st line LW that this team could very much fucking use right now for the next several years. It's a very real scenario that they make the trade and it ends up biting them. But perhaps worth the risk. I don't know. It isn't a black or white, no brainer decision. Arguably their biggest issue these past few years has been the lack of ELC talent on the roster. Trading potentially their best one could hurt. I very much disagree with the "fuck it, go balls deep" idea that some may have for baseball or basketball. This is a very different sport.
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We've seen just how much it can hurt your depth to not generate any NHL ready skill in successive draft classes when you're trying to compete.

Trading prospects is where you really have to finesse shit. You really need to know what you really have in your system better than the other guy does and hope they put value in the wrong places.
 
Habsy said:
Uh, who is this Barrachini dude?
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Apparently, he's this guy

PB_86-copy-e1615561602377.jpg

Peter Baracchini
Peter is in his third year with The Hockey Writers, covering the Toronto Maple Leafs and heading the Draft and Prospects section. He has previously interned at The Hockey News and worked on Toronto Marlies broadcasts for Rogers TV. He currently is the co-host of the podcast Sticks in the 6ix and a frequent guest on Maple Leafs Lounge. Aside from hockey, he also enjoys drumming, animation and impressions/ voices.
 
MindzEye said:
ehhh....Robertson is an A prospect. Not an A+ like Powers, but if we just take a standard top 100 list like this one:

thehockeywriters.com

The NHL's Top 100 Prospects - Midseason Update - The Hockey Writers Editor's Choice Latest News, Analysis & More

Every team has articles ranking their top prospects. But how do they all compare together? This list takes a look at the top-100 prospects.
thehockeywriters.com thehockeywriters.com

There's a bunch of forwards in that top 15 that if you swapped out Robertson's performance for theirs last season, they would move up the draft rankings and not down.
Click to expand...

I don't put much stock in prospect ratings and haven't for a long time. We've been rated both high and low at times over the years and there's been no corresponding relationship to the real talent produced by the Leafs drafting and development system.

that said if Robertson suddenly turns into an impact addition for this season nobody will be happier. the Leafs are in dire need of cheap quality forwards.
 
hockeylover said:
Say what you think it would take.
Click to expand...

hard to say without knowing how many destinations Kane is willing to accept...but assuming Mindz guess of 8 is in the ballpark, the bidding war will be steep. Some of those 7 other GMs aren't going to be as measured as the ForumIce intelligentsia...so Knies + Robertson + 1st (or B prospect) + salary flip seems like a good starting point
 
MindzEye said:
Apparently, he's this guy

PB_86-copy-e1615561602377.jpg

Peter Baracchini
Peter is in his third year with The Hockey Writers, covering the Toronto Maple Leafs and heading the Draft and Prospects section. He has previously interned at The Hockey News and worked on Toronto Marlies broadcasts for Rogers TV. He currently is the co-host of the podcast Sticks in the 6ix and a frequent guest on Maple Leafs Lounge. Aside from hockey, he also enjoys drumming, animation and impressions/ voices.
Click to expand...
Oh he drums. That's cool and important.
 
Volcanologist said:
I don't put much stock in prospect ratings and haven't for a long time. We've been rated both high and low at times over the years and there's been no corresponding relationship to the real talent produced by the Leafs drafting and development system.
Click to expand...

Cool, but if we're sitting here assigning letter grades to prospects regarding what their value should be in trade. any grade has to take into account where they sit against other top prospects in quality. All I'm objecting to is that Robertson isn't an "A" prospect. He's a top 10 forward prospect in hockey imo.

Fwiw, I'd say that we have two "A" prospects but no A+ prospects. Robertson & Niemela are A prospects imo, Knies a B or B+.
 
Preston said:
He's probably the best rental available since Kovalchuk in 2010. So he'll cost Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier and a 1st. A rental has never cost as much as the CH1 package from what I recall.. Though maybe that changes.
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I was looking at comps and its impossible to say. Most elite, veteran rentals are traded for packages like that, but then also some team blows their load for Matt Duchene or Seth Jones for some reason. So who knows.

Best guess is a top prospect, a 1st and maybe some depth pieces/picks. Thats likely what most offers would be.

But some team could do something crazy. It only takes one.
 
Preston said:
He's probably the best rental available since Kovalchuk in 2010. So he'll cost Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier and a 1st. A rental has never cost as much as the CH1 package from what I recall.. Though maybe that changes.
Click to expand...

guys like Kane rarely hit the deadline market

my package isn't that pricey...it's bereft of can't miss prospects...Robertson has size and injury issues, Knies has production issues, and a first rounder gets you Nick Foligno or Ben Chiarot
 
Considering Davidson made Hughes go out and get a top 15 pick for Dach, I don't think he will let Kane go cheaply. He may actually get more at deadline and Dubas may prefer that anyway.
 
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